Pick details
| MATCHUP | Toledo Rockets | Ball State Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Spread | -20.5 -112 | +20.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -1350 | +800 |
| Total | Over 52.5 (-108) | Under 52.5 (-112) |
| Where | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
The Toledo Rockets beat San Diego State and Temple, and they play Buffalo next. The Toledo Rockets have won 7 of their last 9 games. John Alan Richter is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 1,161 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Adjatay Dabbs and Bryson Hammer have combined for 571 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Rico Bond has 9 receptions.
The Toledo Rockets’ ground game is averaging 162.5 yards per contest, and Connor Walendzak leads the way with 233 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Toledo is allowing 26 points and 314.3 yards per game. Isaac Zay leads the Toledo Rockets with 34 tackles, Andrew Zock has 2.5 sacks, and Armorion Smith has 4 pass deflections.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
The Ball State Cardinals lost to Liberty and Kent State, and they play Northwestern next. Ball State has lost 6 of its last 7 games. Keldric Luster is completing 64 percent of his passes for 438 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Donovan Hamilton and Isaiah Thacker have combined for 262 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Jalen Bonds has 8 receptions.
The Ball State Cardinals’ ground game is averaging 121.3 yards per contest, and TJ Horton leads the way with 211 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Ball State is allowing 37.5 points and 453.8 yards per game. Sterling Smith leads the Ball State Cardinals with 28 tackles, Layton Starks has 1.5 sacks, and Kamron Chamble has 2 interceptions.
Why the Ball State Cardinals will win
- The home team has won each of Ball State’s last six games.
- Toledo has lost four of its last five October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Ball State has covered the spread in each of its last eight October games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Toledo has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
- The favorite has won each of Toledo’s last nine games.
- Ball State has lost each of its last four games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has covered the spread in each of Ball State’s last five games.
- Ball State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog.
- Ball State has lost the first half in 14 of its last 15 games as an underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Toledo’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Ball State’s last six games as an underdog against Toledo have gone UNDER the total points line.
Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jalen Bonds ranks T1st in the Mid-American Conference amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, John Alan Richter ranks T5th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ball State ranks 136th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (19.8).
- Ball State ranks 135th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (37.5).
- Toledo ranks T5th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (23.3).
- Toledo ranks T128th among FBS teams for sacks this season (2.0).
Toledo vs Ball State Prediction
Toledo looks more and more impressive by the week and is humming on the offensive side. Ball State is making a case as the worst team in the country, as this team does nothing well on either side of the ball. Ball State is 135th in total offense, 131st in scoring offense, 135th in total defense, and 135th in scoring defense. I want nothing to do with Ball State. Toledo should have a field day in this spot. I’ll lay the points with the Rockets on the road.
