San Diego State vs Toledo Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a San Diego State vs Toledo prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 26th at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 4 matchup. 

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs are 1-2 this season after they lost to James Madison by a score of 26-13 last week. San Diego State trailed 19-0 at halftime, but they did win the second half 13-7 in the low scoring loss. The Aztecs were out gained by a total of 417-401, went 7-17 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jayden Denegal threw for 209 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Javion Kinnard caught four passes for 70 yards. Kinnard also led the team in rushing with 33 carries for 181 yards and one score in the game. 

Prior to that loss, San Diego State lost to UCLA by a score of 28-10, but did defeat Portland State by a score of 53-20 before that. The Aztecs have scored 25.3 points per game with 137.0 passing yards and 191.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.7 points against per game this season. Jayden Denegal has thrown for 391 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions this season. 

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 2-1 this year after they defeated Temple by a score of 49-48 in overtime last week. Toledo trailed 24-14 at halftime and 42-28 in the fourth quarter, but they scored 14 points in the last 1:05, before winning in overtime. The Rockets out gained Temple by a total of 536-425, went 8-13 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. John Alan Richter threw for 429 yards and four touchdowns, while Terrell Crosby Jr caught seven passes for 95 yards. Connor Walendzak rushed 12 times for 62 yards and two scores in the win. 

Prior to that game, Toledo defeated Central Connecticut by a score of 63-10, but lost to MSU by a score of 30-20 before that. The Rockets have scored 44.0 points per game with 312.7 passing yards and 146.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 29.3 points against per game this season. John Alan Richter has thrown for 877 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception this year. 

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• Toledo has won each of its last 12 September games at Glass Bowl.
• San Diego State has lost eight of its last nine road games in September.
• San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Toledo has covered the spread in four of its last five home games in September.
• San Diego State has lost the first half in seven of its last nine games as an underdog.

Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win

• The underdog has covered the spread in four of San Diego State’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Toledo’s last nine games against non-conference opponents at Glass Bowl have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of San Diego State’s last four games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, John Alan Richter ranks T4th in the league for TD:INT ratio (9.00) this season.

San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Mike Lindsay ranks T8th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Toledo ranks T131st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.0).
• Toledo ranks T8th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+10.7).
• San Diego State ranks 123rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:07).
• San Diego State ranks T117th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.3).

San Diego State vs Toledo Prediction 

San Diego State comes into this matchup on a two game losing streak and their offense has been horrible in both of those losses. The Aztecs are a solid defensive team, but they have almost no passing game on the offensive side of the ball. Toledo has won two in a row and played Michigan State very close in week one. The Rockets are a balanced team and while their defense isn’t great, they really only have to focus on stopping the run. Take Toledo at home here.

David Racey's Pick: Toledo -3