Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction 11/11/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction

In this Massachusetts vs Toledo prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Wednesday, November 11th, Toledo is coming as -14.5 home favorites. Toledo has been the better team this season, they are almost perfect at home with a 4-1 record and in excellent form, with a 7-1 record in their last 8 games. They have a superior offense than UMass, scoring 8.4 points per game more and the Minutemen have been struggling lately, as they are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in their last 5 games, and their defense has been struggling, allowing 32.5 ppg in their last two games. On top of that Toledo has been dominating UMass historically, having won all of its six head-to-head meetings, so I expect them to win this one comfortably at home and cover the -14.5 point spread.

Toledo Rockets Preview

Toledo has a 7-2 record and a 4-1 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 20-17 road win against Sacramento State and will face Bowling Green and Ohio next.

Offensively, Toledo averages 35.4 points per game, ranking 23rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 24.4 points per game, which is 68th. Toledo averages 454.9 total yards per game (262.8 passing and 192.1 rushing), while allowing 314.3 total yards per game (114.1 rushing and 200.2 passing). They average 70.4 plays per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 68.7 plays per game and 4.6 yards per play on defense. Toledo averages 21.9 first downs per game on offense and 17.9 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 1.2 turnovers per game and forcing 1.3 turnovers per game.

John Alan Richter leads Toledo with 2,304 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. CJ Miller leads the team in rushing yards with 744, while Adjatay Dabbs has a team-high 592 receiving yards and 40 receptions. Defensively, Julian Fox has a team-high 74 total tackles (34 of them solo), while Andrew Zock leads the team with 9.5 sacks.

Massachusetts Minutemen Preview

Massachusetts has a 5-4 record and a 2-3 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 31-30 home win against Ball State and will face Akron and Bowling Green next.

Offensively, Massachusetts averages 27.0 points per game, ranking 76th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 22.1 points per game, which is 49th. Massachusetts averages 348.0 total yards per game (200.6 passing and 147.4 rushing), while allowing 327.0 total yards per game (145.1 rushing and 181.9 passing). They average 59.4 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 66.7 plays per game and 4.9 yards per play on defense. Massachusetts averages 16.9 first downs per game on offense and 18.4 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 0.9 turnovers per game and forcing 1.4 turnovers per game.

William Watson III leads Massachusetts with 1,327 passing yards with 69.3% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Elijah Faulkner leads the team in rushing yards with 400, while T.Y. Harding has a team-high 397 receiving yards and 34 receptions. Defensively, Timmy Hinspeter has a team-high 78 total tackles (18 of them solo), while Joshua Iseah leads the team with 3.5 sacks.

Massachusetts Minutemen @ Toledo Rockets Betting Trends: Week 11

Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Andrew Zock is one of only two players to record at least one sack in seven consecutive appearances this season.

Massachusetts Minutemen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, T.Y. Harding leads Massachusetts for receptions (34) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Toledo ranks 15th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (8.8).
• Toledo ranks 17th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (454.9).
• Massachusetts ranks T124th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (152).
• Massachusetts ranks 124th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (72.2).

Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Toledo -14.5