Sam Houston State vs Missouri State Prediction 10/27/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Sam Houston Bearkats and Missouri State Bears meet Tuesday in week 9 college football action at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. Here’s a Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Prediction. This article will include a Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Pick.

Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview

The Sam Houston Bearkats lost to Western Kentucky and New Mexico State, and they play Jacksonville State next. The Sam Houston Bearkats have lost 4 straight games. Landyn Locke is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,653 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Tim Burns Jr. and Chris Reed have combined for 622 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Grady O’Neill has 30 receptions.

The Sam Houston Bearkats ground game is averaging 83 yards per contest, and Alton McCaskill leads the way with 220 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Sam Houston is allowing 25.3 points and 341.7 yards per game. Dean Ford leads the Sam Houston Bearkats with 44 tackles, Elijah Groves has 2.5 sacks, and Railyn Adams has 2 interceptions.

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

The Missouri State Bears lost to Delaware, beat Kennessaw State, and they play FIU next. Missouri State has lost 4 of its last 5 games. Henry Belin IV is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 887 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Isaiah Myers and Jmariyae Robinson have combined for 1,092 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Mekhi Miller has 13 receptions.

The Missouri State Bears’ ground game is averaging 126.9 yards per contest, and Ramone Green Jr. leads the way with 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Missouri State is allowing 34.9 points and 434.6 yards per game. Jared Lloyd leads the Missouri State Bears with 80 tackles, Josh Lukusa has 1.5 sacks, and Jashawn Cooper has 1 interception.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• Sam Houston State has lost each of its last seven October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has won each of Missouri State’s last four games.
• Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games in October.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Missouri State’s last three games.
• The favorite has won the first half in six of Sam Houston State’s last eight games.

Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win

• Missouri State has lost four of its last five games against conference opponents.
• Missouri State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Sam Houston State’s last six road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Missouri State’s last five games at Robert W. Plaster Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Isaiah Myers leads the Conference USA in touchdowns (8) this season.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Landan Brown ranks T2nd among qualified players for catch rate (94.1%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri State ranks 137th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-6.6).
• Missouri State ranks 135th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (10.4).
• Sam Houston State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (141.0).
• Sam Houston State ranks 134th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (7.4).

Sam Houston State vs Missouri State Prediction

Instead of getting involved with the spread, I’m looking at the over. These are two teams that don’t play defense and have been involved in high-scoring games recently. Sam Houston State is 128th in rush defense and 81st in scoring defense. Missouri State is 127th in total defense, 116th in pass defense, 114th in rush defense, and 129th in scoring defense. Missouri State just allowed 61 points last week to Delaware. I expect points in this spot. Give me the over.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Over 50.5