Oregon State vs Boise State Prediction 11/14/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Oregon State vs Boise State Prediction

In this Oregon State vs Boise State prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Boise State is coming as -13.5 home favorites. Boise State has been the far better team this season, having lost only once in their nine games played and have been undefeated at home. They have slightly better numbers than Oregon State both offensively and defensively, but with the Beavers also having an elite offense, I am not rushing to lay -13.5 points in this one. With both teams scoring 77 points per game offensively combined and having a 14-4 record to the over combined this season, there is only one way to go in this one and that is to take the over the total.

Boise State Broncos Preview

Boise State has an 8-1 record and a 5-0 record in the Pac-12. They are coming off a 64-38 road win against Colorado State, following a 46-45 home win against Texas State and a 31-10 road win against Washington State, and will face San Diego State next.

Offensively, Boise State averages 39 points per game, while defensively, they allow 25.2 points per game. Boise State averages 473.7 total yards per game (236.6 passing and 237.1 rushing), while allowing 377.2 total yards per game (111.4 rushing and 265.8 passing). They average 70.6 plays per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 58.4 plays per game and 6.5 yards per play on defense. Boise State averages 24.8 first downs per game on offense and 16.8 first downs per game on defense.

Maddux Madsen leads Boise State with 1,681 passing yards with 66.7% completed passes and 15 touchdowns. Dylan Riley leads the team in rushing yards with 1,241, while Rasean Jones has a team-high 670 receiving yards and 44 receptions. Defensively, Boen Phelps has a team-high 52 total tackles (24 of them solo), while Lopez Sanusi leads the team with 4.5 sacks.

Oregon State Beavers Preview

Oregon State has a 5-4 record and a 3-2 record in the Pac-12. They are coming off a 21-42 home loss against Texas State, following a 22-38 road loss against Fresno State and a 48-30 home win against Washington State, and will face Utah State next.

Offensively, Oregon State averages 38 points per game, while defensively, they allow 26.9 points per game. Oregon State averages 498.4 total yards per game (370.4 passing and 128 rushing), while allowing 378.8 total yards per game (173.2 rushing and 205.6 passing). They average 73.1 plays per game and 6.8 yards per play on offense, while allowing 67.6 plays per game and 5.6 yards per play on defense. Oregon State averages 25.9 first downs per game on offense and 19.8 first downs per game on defense.

Braden Atkinson leads Oregon State with 3,169 passing yards with 65.8% completed passes and 25 touchdowns. AJ Newberry leads the team in rushing yards with 506, while Jesse Legree has a team-high 1,209 receiving yards and 61 receptions. Defensively, Aiden Sullivan has a team-high 69 total tackles (27 of them solo), while Takari Hickle leads the team with 7 sacks.

Oregon State Beavers @ Boise State Broncos Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won each of its last 12 November games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Oregon State has lost nine of its last 10 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games against conference opponents.
• Boise State has covered the spread in 16 of its last 21 games against conference opponents at Albertsons Stadium.
• Oregon State has lost the first half in each of its last six games as an underdog.

Why the Oregon State Beavers will win

• Oregon State has won three of its last four games against teams from Idaho.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team at Albertsons Stadium.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Boise State’s last three games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Oregon State’s last six games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Boise State’s last four games at Albertsons Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Dylan Riley leads the league for rushing yards (1241) this season.

Oregon State Beavers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Jesse Legree ranks 1st amongst FBS players for receiving yards (1209) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Boise State ranks 2nd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (35:29).
• Boise State is one of two FBS teams to score 25+ points in every game this season.
• Oregon State ranks 7th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (498.4).
• Oregon State ranks T8th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.3).

Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Over 65.5