Pick details
| MATCHUP | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Penn State Nittany Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Spread | +9.5 -112 | -9.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +280 | -355 |
| Total | Over 41.5 (-112) | Under 41.5 (-108) |
| Where | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | FS1 | |
Minnesota vs Penn State Prediction
In this Minnesota vs Penn State prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Penn State is coming as -9.5 home favorites. Both teams have identical records this season but they have been on opposite trajectories as of late, with Penn State having back-to-back wins and three straight covers, while on the other hand, Minnesota is 1-3 in its last three games, having lost its last two games on the road and having scored 16 points or less in three of their last four games, so they are a hard team to trust on the road right now. Penn State also dominates this head-to-head matchup, with a 6-2 record in their last 8 meetings against Minnesota and 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Take Penn State and lay the -9.5 points at home in this one.
Penn State Nittany Lions Preview
Penn State has a 5-4 record and a 2-4 record in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 28-25 road win against Washington and will face Rutgers and Maryland next.
Offensively, Penn State averages 28.9 points per game, while defensively, they allow 19.3 points per game. Penn State averages 395.6 total yards per game (244.7 passing and 150.9 rushing), while allowing 297.3 total yards per game (152.6 rushing and 144.8 passing). They average 67.2 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 58.3 plays per game and 5.1 yards per play on defense. Penn State averages 20.9 first downs per game on offense and 16.1 first downs per game on defense.
Rocco Becht leads Penn State with 2,079 passing yards with 62.8% completed passes and 15 touchdowns. Carson Hansen leads the team in rushing yards with 493, while Chase Sowell has a team-high 635 receiving yards and 38 receptions. Defensively, Tony Rojas has a team-high 65 total tackles (34 of them solo), also adding a team-high 5 sacks.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview
Minnesota has a 5-4 record and a 3-3 record in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 20-34 home loss against UCLA and will face Northwestern and Wisconsin next.
Offensively, Minnesota averages 24.7 points per game, while defensively, they allow 22 points per game. Minnesota averages 307.6 total yards per game (209 passing and 98.6 rushing), while allowing 322.9 total yards per game (130.2 rushing and 192.7 passing). They average 62.8 plays per game and 4.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 59.7 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. Minnesota averages 15.8 first downs per game on offense and 17.1 first downs per game on defense.
Drake Lindsey leads Minnesota with 1,797 passing yards with 60.8% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. TJ Thomas leads the team in rushing yards with 400, while Javon Tracy has a team-high 485 receiving yards and 49 receptions. Defensively, Maverick Baranowski has a team-high 69 total tackles (37 of them solo), while TJ Bush Jr. leads the team with 6 sacks.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions will win
- Penn State has won each of its last 16 November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Minnesota has lost six of its last seven road games against conference opponents.
- Penn State has covered the spread in each of its last seven November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers will win
- Minnesota has won 14 of its last 21 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Minnesota has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Six of Minnesota’s last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Penn State’s last six November games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Penn State Nittany Lions Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Chase Sowell leads Penn State for receptions (38) this season.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Darius Taylor leads Minnesota for touchdowns (7) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Penn State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (95.8).
- Penn State ranks T127th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (75.0).
- Minnesota ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.2).
- Minnesota ranks 129th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (31.5).
