Pick details
| MATCHUP | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | Liberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 5-4 | 8-1 |
| Spread | +21 -110 | -21 -110 |
| Moneyline | +950 | -1650 |
| Total | Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-112) |
| Where | Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, VA | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EST | |
| TV | CBSSN | |
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Prediction
I’ll stick with Liberty. The Flames had a little more trouble with a struggling New Mexico State than they probably should have in a 16-point road win last weekend. Liberty ended up with 399 yards, 24 first downs and zero turnovers while holding the ball for 37:05 of game time. The Flames defense had three takeaways, allowing 300 yards and 13 first downs along the way. Liberty is cruising on this eight-game win streak. They’ve posted 30 or more points in seven straight and should score pretty well here also.
As for Middle Tennessee, they were able to power out a nine-point win over a middling Western Kentucky team last weekend, posting 513 total yards, 26 first downs and a pretty solid 7-of-13 on third-down tries. On defense MTSU gave up 497 total yards with 24 first downs and 7-of-15 on third downs. The good news for Middle Tennessee is that they’re 3-1 in their last four games and scoring well. They’ve put up 26 or more points in all four of those outings.
Game Info, Stats and Previews
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college football action from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg. Here’s a collection of relevant information and reasoning for a sound Middle Tennessee vs Liberty prediction. We have looked at this information from a betting perspective and attempted to determine the best Middle Tennessee vs Liberty pick. We will also examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. We will tie it all together to the pick summary, resulting in a sensible prediction for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview
Middle Tennessee has had a rocky year so far but they’re still on the right side of the .500 mark. The Raiders opened on a spotty 2-3 run with wins over Murray State and Nevada mixed with losses to Marshall, Jacksonville State and Kansas. It’s been a 3-1 run since then with a loss to Kennesaw State among wins over Delaware, FIU and Western Kentucky for a 5-4 overall run through nine outings.
In the Western Kentucky game back on Saturday the Blue Raiders scored three touchdowns in the first half on the way to a 21-13 lead at the break. Middle Tennessee kept it going from there and eventually powered out a 51-42 victory. QB Roman Gagliano was 30-of-41 for 312 yards and four scores. Antonio Martin led the rush on 16 totes for 125 yards and two TDs while Ziyon Butler had six catches for 129 yards and a touchdown.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Over on the Liberty side, it’s been a pretty nice season so far. The Flames opened with a seven-point road loss to James Madison, but since then it’s been a string of wins. In the last eight games Liberty has beaten Gardner-Webb, Ball State, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Sam Houston, Kennesaw State, Florida International and New Mexico State for an 8-1 record in the books so far.
Matched up against New Mexico State last weekend the Flames held a 16-7 lead by halftime. Nobody scored in the third quarter, but Liberty managed a couple of late TDs in the fourth for a 30-14 victory. QB Deshawn Purdie was 19-of-28 for 252 yards and a TD. Kam Davis added 15 carries for 63 yards and a TD.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Middle Tennessee has lost each of its last four games in Virginia.
- Liberty has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite.
- Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog against teams from Virginia.
- Middle Tennessee has lost the first half in nine of its last 11 road games.
Why the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will win
- The underdog has won three of Middle Tennessee’s last four games.
- Liberty has lost three of its last four November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in each of its last three November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Middle Tennessee’s last five games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Liberty’s last five games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Kam Davis/Isaiah Myers lead the Conference USA for touchdowns (9) this season.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Cam’ron Lacy leads the Conference USA for targets (80) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks 3rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (33:47).
- Liberty ranks T4th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+6.7).
- Middle Tennessee ranks T127th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.3).
- Middle Tennessee ranks 127th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (93.8).
