Pick details
| MATCHUP | Louisville Cardinals | NC State Wolfpack |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Spread | -3.5 -112 | +3.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -185 | +154 |
| Total | Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110) |
| Where | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ACC Network | |
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
The Louisville Cardinals beat SMU, lost to Wake Forest, and they play Florida State next. Louisville has won 4 of its last 6 games. Lincoln Kienholz is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,140 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Tre Richardson and Lawayne McCoy have combined for 629 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Jaleel Skinner has 12 receptions.
The Louisville Cardinals’ ground game is averaging 190.5 yards per contest, and Keyjuan Brown leads the way with 279 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Louisville is allowing 28.8 points and 405.5 yards per game. Stanquan Clark leads the Louisville Cardinals with 28 tackles, Clev Lubin has 2.5 sacks, and Kaleb Beasley has 2 interceptions.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The NC State Wolfpack lost to Vanderbilt, beat App State, and plays Wake Forest next. NC State has won 6 of its last 10 games. CJ Bailey is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 893 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Keenan Jackson and Preston Douglas have combined for 462 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Joshisa Trader has 11 receptions.
The NC State Wolfpack ground game is averaging 219 yards per contest, and Jayden Scott leads the way with 346 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, NC State is allowing 25 points and 327.8 yards per game. Popo Aguirre leads the NC State Wolfpack with 36 tackles, Elijah Satchell has 2 sacks, and Jackson Vick has 1 interception.
Why the NC State Wolfpack will win
- NC State has won eight of its last nine games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
- Louisville has lost four of its last six October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- NC State has covered the spread in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
- Louisville has lost the first half in five of its last six games as a favorite in North Carolina.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won five of its last six games against teams from North Carolina.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Louisville and NC State.
- NC State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine October games as an underdog.
- Louisville has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Louisville’s last four games as a favorite against teams from North Carolina have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of NC State’s last seven games against teams from Kentucky have gone UNDER the total points line.
NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Keenan Jackson ranks T12th amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (4) this season.
Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Keyjuan Brown ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (9.3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- NC State ranks 10th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (53.6).
- NC State ranks T128th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-4.5).
- Louisville ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (13.0).
- Louisville ranks T5th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (23.3).
Louisville vs NC State Prediction
Louisville is the more complete team, and this is probably a good spot to back the Cardinals after a horrendous performance against Wake Forest. However, Louisville lost to Wake Forest as a double-digit favorite. We don’t just ignore that. I also love my hooks on top of key numbers, and we’re getting points with an NC State team that’s led by a difference maker at quarterback. There’s not a lot of star QBs in the country, and NC State has one that can completely take over a game. Basically, NC State is live every week. I’ll grab the points with the Wolfpack.
