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| MATCHUP | Kansas State Wildcats | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Spread | +10.5 -112 | -10.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +310 | -395 |
| Total | Over 45.5 (-105) | Under 45.5 (-115) |
| Where | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPNU | |
Kansas State vs TCU Prediction
In this Kansas State vs TCU prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, TCU is coming as -10.5 home favorites. Both teams have identical records this season and neither team has been in good form lately, as TCU is 2-4 both straight up and against the spread in its last 6 games and Kansas State is 1-5 in its last 6 games and 2-5 against the spread. the Wildcats have an elite offense, ranking on the top-50 of the entire country and are scoring 7.5 points per game more than the Horned Frogs, who on the other hand, have the 12th-best defense in the country. Kansas State has also been dominating TCU historically, as they are 6-1 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings and I expect them to keep this one somewhat close. Take Kansas State and grab the +10.5 points in this one.
TCU Horned Frogs Preview
TCU has a 4-5 record and a 2-4 record in the Big 12. They are coming off a 28-29 road loss against Arizona and will face Utah and Texas Tech next.
Offensively, TCU averages 23.8 points per game, ranking 100th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 15.8 points per game, which is 12th. TCU averages 378.3 total yards per game (271.0 passing and 107.3 rushing), while allowing 304.7 total yards per game (114.7 rushing and 190.0 passing). They average 66.3 plays per game and 5.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 63.9 plays per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. TCU averages 21.3 first downs per game on offense and 16.8 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 1.7 turnovers per game and forcing 1.3 turnovers per game.
Jaden Craig leads TCU with 2,439 passing yards with 65.5% completed passes and 12 touchdowns. Jeremy Payne leads the team in rushing yards with 429, while Nacari Ashley has a team-high 655 receiving yards and 52 receptions. Defensively, Hudson Hooper has a team-high 62 total tackles (43 of them solo), while Koron Hayward leads the team with 6 sacks.
Kansas State Wildcats Preview
Kansas State has a 4-5 record and a 1-5 record in the Big 12. They are coming off a 28-66 home loss against Oklahoma State and will face Arizona and Iowa State next.
Offensively, Kansas State averages 31.3 points per game, ranking 47th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 26.8 points per game, which is 89th. Kansas State averages 415.6 total yards per game (218.8 passing and 196.8 rushing), while allowing 345.4 total yards per game (172.4 rushing and 173.0 passing). They average 71 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 61.1 plays per game and 5.7 yards per play on defense. Kansas State averages 22.2 first downs per game on offense and 17.9 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 1 turnover per game and forcing 0.8 turnovers per game.
Avery Johnson leads Kansas State with 1,301 passing yards with 63.1% completed passes and 10 touchdowns, and he leads the team in rushing yards with 462. Jaron Tibbs has a team-high 421 receiving yards and 45 receptions. Defensively, Logan Bartley has a team-high 59 total tackles (39 of them solo), while Jayden Bryant leads the team with 4 sacks.
Kansas State Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- Kansas State has lost each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
- TCU has won 12 of its last 13 November games as a favorite.
- TCU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight November games at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
- Kansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Kansas State Wildcats will win
- Kansas State has won six of its last seven games against TCU.
- Kansas State has covered the spread in six of its last seven November games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
- TCU has lost the first half in five of its last six games against teams from Kansas.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Kansas State’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of TCU’s last five games in Texas have gone UNDER the total points line.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Kari Ashley leads TCU for receptions (52) this season.
Kansas State Wildcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Simon McClannan ranks 7th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (48.2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- TCU ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.2).
- TCU ranks 128th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (107.3).
- Kansas State ranks 7th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (51.9).
- Kansas State ranks T128th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (8.1).
Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Kansas State +10.5
