Pick details
| MATCHUP | Fresno State Bulldogs | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Spread | +9.5 -108 | -9.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | +295 | -375 |
| Total | Over 59.5 (-112) | Under 59.5 (-108) |
| Where | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:00 PM EST | |
| TV | CW | |
Fresno State vs Texas State Prediction
I’ll stick with Fresno State here. The Bulldogs couldn’t find the end zone until late in a tough road loss to Utah State last weekend. Fresno State ended up posting just 15 first downs, 5-of-15 on third-down tries and 278 total yards (16 rushing) in the defeat. The defense was pretty good though, giving up just 269 yards, 15 first downs and 5-of-13 on third downs themselves. Sure, the Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games and they’re barely hanging above the .500 mark. That said, Fresno State’s last three losses have each come by seven points or fewer, and two were on the road (the other was against ranked Boise State).
As for Texas State, they’re coming off a nice road win versus Oregon State. The Bobcats put up a whopping 600 yards in that one with 386 rushing yards, 26 first downs and a nice 10-of-15 on third downs but did have a couple of turnovers. Texas State has scored 42 or more points in three of the last four games (a 3-1 run) so this one could easily become a shootout.
Game Info, Stats and Previews
The Fresno State Bulldogs and the Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. Here’s a collection of relevant information and reasoning for a sound Fresno State vs Texas State prediction. We have looked at this information from a betting perspective and attempted to determine the best Fresno State vs Texas State pick. We will also examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. We will tie it all together to the pick summary, resulting in a sensible prediction for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Fresno State started out the year on a pretty nice run but they’ve had some struggles lately. The Bulldogs lost to USC in their opener, then hit a win streak over Sacramento State, San Jose State, Rice and Washington State in succession. Since then it’s been a 1-3 run with a win over Oregon State mixed among losses to Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State for a 5-4 overall record this year.
In the Utah State game last weekend the Bulldogs gave up a couple of first-half touchdowns and went to the break down 14-0. Fresno State got a little better after halftime but still lost a tough road matchup 17-10. QB Jayden Mandal was 22-of-39 for 262 yards and a TD, while Bryson Donelson had six carries for just 15 yards. Josiah Freeman was the leading receiver on eight catches for 114 yards in the loss.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Over on the Texas State side, they lost to Texas and UTSA in their first pair, then beat North Texas, Incarnate Word, Colorado State and Utah State in the next five (with a lone loss to San Diego State). Since then it’s been a loss to Boise State and a win over Oregon State. In nine games so far that gives Texas State a 5-4 overall record for their troubles this year.
Matched up against Oregon State back on Saturday, the Bobcats scored three touchdowns in the first half and had a 21-7 edge at the break. Texas State got into the end zone three more times and powered out a 42-21 win in the end. QB Brad Jackson was 16-of-20 for 214 yards, one TD and a pick. Torrance Burgess led the rush with 28 carries for 198 yards and a score. Davian Jackson had 107 rush yards and three more TDs as well.
Fresno State Bulldogs @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- Texas State has won each of its last four games at UFCU Stadium.
- Fresno State has lost three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- The home team has covered the spread in five of Fresno State’s last six games.
- Fresno State has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win
- Fresno State has won four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Fresno State has covered the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Texas State’s last eight November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Fresno State’s last six games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Torrance Burgess Jr. leads the Pac-12 Conference for yards per carry (7.1) this season.
Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Simeon Harris is one of only nine players to record at least one interception in three consecutive appearances this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State ranks 2nd among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (54.5).
- Texas State ranks 4th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (517.0).
- Fresno State ranks T9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+5.6).
- Fresno State ranks 11th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (7.2).
