Florida vs Texas Prediction 10/17/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Florida Gators and the Texas Longhorns meet in week 7 college football action from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction.

Florida Gators Recap

The Florida Gators come into this game looking to shake off their 38-19 loss at the hands of South Carolina last time out to sit at 4-2 this season. After this game, Florida will head on the road for a game against Georgia.

Gators Lose Back-To-Back Games

Aaron Philo has thrown for 1,341 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 70.5% passing while Jadan Baugh leads Florida in rushing with 672 yards and 12 touchdowns. Duke Clark sits behind Baugh on the ground with 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dallas Wilson leads the Gators in receiving with 376 yards and 26 catches along with 3 touchdowns, while Vernell Brown III trails with 271 yards and 17 catches along with 2 touchdowns. On defense, Myles Graham has a team-high 42 tackles while Florida’s defense as a whole has combined for 17 sacks and 4 interceptions.

Texas Longhorns Recap

The Texas Longhorns come into this game looking to bounce back from their 27-24 loss at the hands of Oklahoma in their last game to sit at 4-1 on the year. After this game, Texas will be at home for a game against Ole Miss.

Longhorns Looking To Shake Off Red River Loss

Arch Manning has thrown for 1,122 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 63.0% passing while Hollywood Smothers leads Texas in rushing with 237 yards and 2 touchdowns. Raleek Brown sits behind Smothers on the ground with 218 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cam Coleman leads the Longhorns in receiving with 318 yards and 17 catches along with 5 touchdowns, while Ryan Wingo trails with 296 yards and 21 catches along with 3 touchdowns. On defense, Rasheem Biles has a team-high 41 tackles while Texas’s defense as a whole has combined for 12 sacks and 5 interceptions.

Florida Gators @ Texas Longhorns Betting Trends: Week 7

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• Texas has won each of its last 22 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Florida has lost eight of its last nine October games against AP-ranked teams.
• Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
• Texas has covered the spread in three of its last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas has won the first half in each of its last 16 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas has won the first quarter in each of its last 14 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Texas has lost three of its last four October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
• Texas has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 15 October games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Texas’ last four games.
• Florida has won the first half in three of its last four October games as an underdog.
• Florida has won the first quarter in three of its last four October games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida’s last six games against teams from Texas have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Texas’ last six October games at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Colin Simmons ranks 1st amongst FBS players for sacks (9.5) this season.

Florida Gators Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Jadan Baugh ranks T1st amongst FBS players for touchdowns (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas has overturned the largest 3rd quarter deficit to win a game this season – 20 points vs Ohio State.
• Three of Texas’ five games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Florida has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
• Florida ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (268.7).

Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I don’t trust either offense in this game as Florida’s fallen off of a cliff in the last two weeks and against this Texas defense, I don’t expect improvements. On the other side, Arch Manning and this Texas offense have been average and this feels like a 24-17 kind of game. Give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 51.5