Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction 10/10/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction for this College Football Week 6 matchup on Saturday, October 10th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Fresno State Bulldogs Preview

Fresno State has a 4-1 record and are coming off a 26-6 road win against Washington State. They will face San Diego State and Oregon State next. Offensively, Fresno State averages 28.2 points per game, ranking 78th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 20.5 points per game, which is 44th. Fresno State averages 367.2 total yards per game (213.4 passing and 153.8 rushing), while allowing 358.8 total yards per game (143.4 rushing and 215.4 passing).

Jayden Mandal leads Fresno State with 1,034 passing yards with 66.4% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. Rayshon Luke leads the team in rushing yards with 286, while Josiah Freeman has a team-high 25 receptions for 322 receiving yards. Defensively, K’Vion Thunderbird has a team-high 39 total tackles (19 of them solo), while Dylan Hampsten leads the team with 2.5 sacks.

Boise State Broncos Preview

Boise State has a 4-1 record and are coming off a 37-18 home win against Utah State. They will face Washington State and Texas State next. Offensively, Boise State averages 33.8 points per game, ranking 52nd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25.8 points per game, which is 80th. Boise State averages 438.2 total yards per game (211.6 passing and 226.6 rushing), while allowing 372.6 total yards per game (114.4 rushing and 258.2 passing).

Maddux Madsen leads Boise State with 1,058 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Dylan Riley leads the team in rushing yards with 685, while Rasean Jones has a team-high 23 receptions for 359 receiving yards. Defensively, Boen Phelps has a team-high 29 total tackles (14 of them solo), while Jayden Virgin-Morgan leads the team with 2 sacks.

Boise State Broncos @ Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won three of its last four games as an underdog against Boise State.
• Boise State has lost four of its last five games in California.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against Boise State.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has won the first half in eight of its last nine home games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has won the first quarter in each of Fresno State’s last three games.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won each of its last eight October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Fresno State has lost each of its last three games against AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in six of Fresno State’s last seven games.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games in October.
• Boise State has won the first half in each of its last 13 October games as an AP-ranked team.
• Boise State has won the first quarter in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Fresno State’s last eight home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Boise State’s last eight road games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Simeon Harris ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Dylan Riley ranks 1st amongst FBS players for rushing yards (685) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State ranks T136th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (0.6).
• Fresno State ranks T6th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (7).
• Boise State ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (36:14).
• Boise State has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last 10 games – longest active streak in the FBS.

Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction

In this Boise State vs Fresno State prediction, Louisville is coming as -5.5 home favorites. Both teams have been excellent this season with an identical 4-1 record, but Fresno has covered the spread in its last four games and has a superior defense, allowing 5.3 points per game less than Boise, who on the other hand, has not covered the spread in two of its last three. Fresno has won its last four meetings against Boise, including a dominating 30-7 win last season, so I expect them to win and cover the spread today at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Fresno State -5.5