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Xavier vs Illinois Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks
Pick details
Illinois (21-12) vs Xavier (22-11)
March 21, 2025 at 09:45 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Illinois -3.5 — Over/Under: 161.5
The Xavier Musketeers and Illinois Fighting Illini meet Friday in the college basketball First Round at the Fiserv Forum. Here’s a Xavier vs Illinois Prediction. This article will include a Xavier vs Illinois Pick.
Xavier Musketeers Betting Preview
The Xavier Musketeers recently played Creighton, Butler, Providence, Marquette, and Texas. Xavier has won nine of its last 11 games.
The Xavier Musketeers are averaging 77.7 points on 46.5 percent shooting and allowing 70.3 points on 44.2 percent shooting. Zach Freemantle is averaging 17.2 points and 7 rebounds, while Ryan Conwell is averaging 16.7 points and 2.8 rebounds. Dailyn Swain is the third double-digit scorer and Dayvion McKnight is dishing 4.3 assists. The Xavier Musketeers are shooting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc and 79.3 percent from the free-throw line. The Xavier Musketeers are allowing 33.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 30.4 rebounds per game.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
The Illinois Fighting Illini recently played Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, and Maryland. Illinois has seen nine of its 12 losses this season come since January 11.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are averaging 83.8 points on 45 percent shooting and allowing 74.6 points on 42.2 percent shooting. Kasparas Jakucionis is averaging 15 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Tomislav Ivisic is averaging 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds. Will Riley is the third double-digit scorer and Kylan Boswell is grabbing 4.9 rebounds. The Illinois Fighting Illini are shooting 31.1 percent from beyond the arc and 75.9 percent from the free throw line. The Illinois Fighting Illini are allowing 33.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 39.8 rebounds per game.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last 19 Friday night games against non-Conference opponents.
- Xavier has lost each of its last three games against the Big Ten Conference.
- Xavier has lost the first half in five of its last six night games played at neutral venues.
Why the Xavier Musketeers will win
- Xavier has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Illinois has lost each of its last four night games against the Big East Conference.
- Illinois has lost the first half in each of its last four night games against the Big East Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Xavier’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
- Ten of Illinois’ last 12 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 161 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks 361st among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (65.4).
- Illinois ranks 358th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (4.5).
- Xavier ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (17.0).
- Xavier ranks 23rd among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (16.8).
Xavier vs Illinois Injury Report
Xavier will continue to be without Lassina Traore and Trey Green. Illinois will be without Ty Rodgers, while Carey Booth is questionable.
Xavier vs Illinois Prediction
You can argue Xavier is playing the better basketball with wins in eight of its last 10 games and got a confidence boost with its comeback win over Texas. Xavier has also covered seven of its last 10 games. With that said, I’m fairly high on Illinois and even had this team making the Final Four in my bracket. Illinois is healthier than it’s been in past weeks and can be an elite offensive team when things are going well.
Illinois has the 11th-best scoring offense. Illinois has several players who can take over for stretches and Jakucionis is one of the best players in the entire tournament. If things come together like I think it can with this group, Illinois is capable of a deep run. Again, I’m driving the Illinois bandwagon in March. I’ll lay the points.
