UT Rio Grande Valley vs Baylor Prediction 11/3/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The UTRGV Vaqueros and the Baylor Bears meet Monday in college basketball action from the Foster Pavilion. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UTRGV Vaqueros vs. Baylor Bears prediction.

UTRGV Vaqueros Recap

The UTRGV Vaqueros come into this game looking to start the year right after going 16-15 in year one under Kahil Fennell, including 8-12 in Southland Conference play. The issue was that 8-12 record was not good enough to crack the top-8 in the Southland, meaning UTRGV would miss the conference tournament, ending their season. It’s a new look for UTRGV, with the core of last year’s team gone and the top returning scorer being grad Kwo Agwa, who logged 6.2 PPG and 4.3 RPG for the Vaqueros last season. Marvin McGhee III transfers in from CSU-Bakersfield, after logging 10 PPG for the Roadrunners and Zae Blake comes in after logging 9.9 PPG at Wagner last year while Kye Dickson comes in after logging 18.9 PPG and a 38.9% 3-point shooting clip at D-II Northwest Nazarene. I think UTRGV can be competitive in spots, as Fennell’s an awesome coach, but losing your top six scorers may be too much for even him to overcome.

Baylor Bears Recap

The Baylor Bears come into the 2025-26 season looking to try to show some improvement after going 20-15 overall including 10-10 in Big 12 conference play. The Bears would take down Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 tournament before narrowly being edged out by Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament quarters. Baylor would get an invite as a 9-seed to the NCAA tournament, beating Mississippi State in the first round before getting beat down by Duke in round two. The Bears are pretty much starting over this year with VJ Edgecombe a Philadelphia 76er, Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier gone after their 5th years, as well as Jayden Nunn who graduated and Robert Wright III who ended up at BYU. There are still pieces transferring in to help, including Michael Rataj (16.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG at Oregon State in 2024-25), Obi Agbim (17.6 PPG at Wyoming), Caden Powell (10.4 PPG at Rice), JJ White (13.7 PPG, 4 APG at Omaha) and Isaac Williams (10.8 PPG, 3.7 APG at Texas A&M-CC) as well as Dan Skillings Jr. (9.2 PPG at Cincinnati). Only time will tell if Scott Drew can pull a rabbit out of the hat and put all of these new pieces together for one cohesive puzzle, or if the alarming regression at Baylor continues.

Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros @ Baylor Bears Betting Trends: November 3, 2025

Why the Baylor Bears will win

• Baylor has won each of its last 13 games against the Southland Conference.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has lost eight of its last nine road games.
• Baylor has won the first half in each of its last 24 games against the Southland Conference.

Why the Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros will win

• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has won four of its last five games against non-Conference opponents.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has won the first half in each of its last five games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Baylor’s last nine night games have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.
• Five of Texas–Rio Grande Valley’s last six games against the Big 12 Conference Conference have produced a total of 152 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Baylor ranked 4th for opponent rebounds per game (29.0) in last season’s NCAA Tournament.
• Baylor ranked T5th for second chance points per game (17.0) in last season’s NCAA Tournament.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley ranked 2nd among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game last season (32.2).
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley ranked 357th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game last season (9.9).

UTRGV Vaqueros vs. Baylor Bears Prediction

I’m leaning towards Baylor but not rushing to bet it. There’s a lot of new pieces at Baylor that need time to gel, but it’s a lot more than what UTRGV has at the moment as it’s hard to figure out what the Vaqueros are going to be after losing their top six scorers from last year. Fennell can coach his boys up, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough here against Baylor. I’d lay it with the Bears if forced to pick.