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UC San Diego vs Michigan Prediction 3/20/25 College Basketball Picks

Pick details

Michigan (25-9) vs UC San Diego (30-4)

March 20, 2025 at 10:00 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Michigan -2.5 — Over/Under: 142.5

(Get latest betting odds)

The UC-San Diego Tritons are facing the Michigan Wolverines on Thursday, March 20th at the Ball Arena, in this NCAA Tournament first-round matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction. We will examine:

The Michigan Wolverines’ recent form and player performance

The UC-San Diego Tritons’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan Wolverines

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UC-San Diego Tritons

Recent betting trends in games played between the UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines game

Michigan Wolverines Preview

The Michigan Wolverines have a 25-9 record this season and were placed 3rd in the Big Ten. Michigan is coming off a 59-53 over Wisconsin, as they won the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Wolverines are 16-18 against the spread, and 18-16 in over/under.

Offensively, Michigan is averaging 78.3 points per game, which ranks 61st in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing 71.2 points per game (162nd). The Wolverines shoot 47.4% from the field (40th) and 33.4% from beyond the arc (206th). The Wolverines shoot 72.8% from the free throw line (202nd) and are grabbing 34.9 rebounds per game (26th).

Vladislav Goldin leads Michigan in scoring this season, with an average of 17 points and 7.7 rebounds, while Danny Wolf adds 15.7 points, 3.7 assists, and a team-high 11 rebounds per game.

UC-San Diego Tritons Preview

The UC-San Diego Tritons have a 30-4 record this season and were placed first in the Big West. UC-San Diego is coming off a 75-61 win over UC Irvine in the Big West Final on Saturday. The Tritons are 25-7 against the spread and 13-17-2 in over/under.

Offensively, UC-San Diego is averaging 79.8 points per game, which ranks 40th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 61.6 points per game, which is the 8th-best nationally. The Tritons shoot 46.6% from the field (88th) and 36.6% from beyond the arc (50th). The Tritons shoot 74.6% from the free-throw line (87th) and are grabbing 30.4 rebounds per game (286th).

Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones leads UC-San Diego in scoring this season, with 17 points, adding team-highs both in rebounding with 8 and in assists made with 8.5 per game. Hayden Grey adds 16.5 points and 4 rebounds per game.

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

  • Michigan has won eight of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
  • Michigan has won the first half in each of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents.

Why the UC San Diego Tritons will win

  • UC San Diego has won each of its last 15 games.
  • Michigan has lost five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
  • Michigan has lost the first half in each of its last four NCAA Tournament games.

Total Points Facts

  • Seven of Michigan’s last eight NCAA Tournament night games against a lower seed have produced a total of 129 or fewer points.
  • Each of UC San Diego’s last five games at a neutral venue has produced a total of 140 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Michigan ranks T20th among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (2.5).
  • Michigan ranks 38th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (40.9%).
  • UC San Diego ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent assist-to-turnover ratio this season (0.68).
  • UC San Diego ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+18.3).

UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction

In this UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Michigan is coming as -2.5-point favorites. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, as the Tritons have a better record this season, and are one of the best road teams in the nation this season, having 12 wins away from home, while Michigan has 7.  UC-San Diego is better than Michigan both offensively, scoring 1.5 points more, and defensively, allowing 9.6 points less.

Michigan has won their last three games, having covered the spread in all, but they had lost their three previous games before that. UC-San Diego is coming off 15 consecutive wins, and are 13-2 against the spread. This is another spot, where the most popular team of the matchup gets to be the favorite, but the value in this matchup lies with the underdog. I like UC-San Diego Tritons to win this one outright, so I will gladly take the +2.5 points in my back pocket.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: UC-San Diego Tritons +2.5

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