Tarleton vs SMU Prediction 11/3/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Tarleton Texans and the SMU Mustangs meet Monday in college basketball action from the Moody Coliseum. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tarleton Texans vs. SMU Mustangs prediction.

Tarleton Texans Recap

The Tarleton Texans come into the 2025-26 season looking to rebound after a frustrating 2024-25 season where the Texans finished 12-20 overall including 7-9 in WAC play to finish 6th in conference play. Tarleton was knocked off in the first round of the WAC tournament by Cal Baptist, ending their season. Chris Mpaka is the top returner for Tarleton after logging 8.5 PPG and 5.3 RPG last season, but it’s the transfers that could be the story. There’s potential that Tarleton could have the prizes of the transfer portal in the WAC with Dior Johnson coming over from UCF and Camron McDowell logging 27.3 PPG at Northwestern Oklahoma State. Only time will tell if Billy Gillispie can make all of these pieces work together, but if he can, there’s lots to like about Tarleton in the WAC. 

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to build on a decent 2024-25 season where the Mustangs went 24-11 overall including a 13-7 mark in ACC conference play. SMU would knock off syracuse in the second round of the ACC tournament before losing to Clemson in the quarterfinals. The Mustangs would be invited to the NIT, taking down Northern Iowa before falling to Oklahoma State in the second round. Andy Enfield has some solid returning production like Kevin Miller (13.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Samet Yigitoglu (10 PPG, 6.2 RPG) while also bringing in Jaron Pierre Jr. from Jacksonville State (21.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG). Corey Washington also comes over from Wichita State after chipping in 13.7 PPG and 7.5 RPG for the Shockers last season. There were some definite signs of life from SMU last season in year one of the Enfield era, and I think there could be more progression in 2025-26. 

Tarleton State Texans @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: November 3, 2025

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Tarleton State has lost each of its last nine night games against non-Conference opponents.
• SMU has won each of its last nine night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 12 games against non-Conference opponents at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Total Points Facts

• Each of Tarleton State’s last eight games have produced a total of 137 or fewer points.
• Eight of SMU’s last nine games against non-Conference opponents at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) have produced a total of 149+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranked 22nd among Division 1 teams for three-point percentage last season (37.8%).
• SMU ranked 25th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage last season (53.9%).
• Tarleton State ranked 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game last season (16.7).
• Tarleton State ranked 360th among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game last season (21.8).

Tarleton Texans vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

I’m on the Mustangs here. I just think there’s too much here to go against when it comes to SMU here and the Mustangs absolutely demolished their inferior matchups last year, winning by 34, 29, 41 and 29 against teams outside the KenPom top-250 last season. Gillispie’s a great coach but the Texans got crushed in these paycheck games last year with a lot more proven talent at the D-I level than what they have here. Give me SMU.