Tarleton vs Cincinnati Prediction 12/1/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Tarleton State Texans will meet on Monday evening in a non‑conference contest at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bearcats enter Monday’s contest with a 5–2 win‑loss record. Cincinnati has compiled wins over Western Carolina, Georgia State, Mount St. Mary’s, and Richmond, while dropping games to Louisville and Eastern Michigan. In the Eastern Michigan Eagles 64–56 win over the Cincinnati Bearcats four days ago, Cincinnati freshman guard Shon Abaev tallied 28 points on 6 of 13 shooting from the field and 4 of 11 shooting from three‑point range.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are averaging 75.4 points per game on 42.7 percent shooting from the field and 29.9 percent shooting from the three‑point line. Defensively, the Cincinnati Bearcats are allowing opponents a rather low 64.1 points (22nd in country) on 36.7 percent shooting from the field (11th in nation) per game.

Senior forward Baba Miller has been a standout performer for Cincinnati, averaging 14.4 points, 10 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 2 blocks per game. Senior guard Day Day Thomas leads the Bearcats backcourt averaging 13 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest. Senior guard Kerr Kriisa is averaging 6.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 5 assists per game.

Tarleton State Texans Betting Preview

The Tarleton State Texans enter Monday’s contest with a 5–3 win‑loss record. Tarleton has compiled wins over Rice, Texas A&M–Corpus Christi, and Merrimack, while losing games to LSU, Baylor, and UC Riverside. In the Tarleton State Texans’ 90–74 win over the Rice Owls ten days ago, guard Dior Johnson amassed 29 points on 9 of 17 shooting from the field.

The Texans are averaging 78 points on 46.9 percent shooting from the field per game. On the defensive side of the basketball, the Tarleton State Texans are allowing opponents 83.2 points on 49.4 percent shooting from the field per contest.

Junior guard Dior Johnson leads the Texans with 23.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Senior guard Freddy Hicks is averaging 11.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists a contest. Senior forward Chris Mpaka provides stability in the paint averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds per game.

Why the Cincinnati Bearcats Will Win

•            Balanced scoring. The Cincinnati Bearcats have four players averaging over 11.3 points per game, led by Miller and Thomas.

•            Elite defense. The Cincinnati Bearcats have allowed just 64.1 points per game which ranks 22nd in the country.

•            Home court advantage. The Bearcats are 5–1 at Fifth Third Arena this season. 

Why the Tarleton State Texans Will Win

•            Junior guard Dior Johnson’s scoring ability. Johnson averages 23.6 points per game.

•            Momentum. The Texans enter tomorrow’s game on the heels of a three wins, including a convincing win over the Rice Owls.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Tarleton State Texans Prediction

Tarleton’s best chance to stay competitive lies in pushing tempo and leaning on Dior Johnson’s shot‑making. The Texans average nearly 78 points per game, and Johnson is one of the nation’s most dynamic scorers. If Tarleton can force Cincinnati into turnovers and convert those into transition points, they can keep the margin tight through the first half. However, Tarleton’s defensive inefficiency and reliance on Johnson remain glaring issues against a disciplined opponent.

Cincinnati, by contrast, thrives in structured sets and has multiple scoring options across its starting five. Guards Day Day Thomas and Kerr Kriisa provide perimeter stability, while forward Baba Miller gives the Bearcats a reliable interior presence. Cincinnati’s defensive efficiency and rebounding edge make them well‑equipped to control tempo and wear down Tarleton over 40 minutes. With that said, I am backing the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover the 17.5 points in this game.

Hans Geevers's Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -17.5