Purdue vs Houston Prediction 3/28/25 College Basketball Picks

The Purdue Boilermakers are facing the Houston Cougars on Friday, March 28th at the Lucas Oil Stadium, in this Sweet 16 matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Purdue Boilermakers vs Houston Cougars Prediction. We will examine:

The Houston Cougars recent form and player performance

The Purdue Boilermakers recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Cougars

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Purdue Boilermakers

Recent betting trends in games played between the Purdue BoilermakersvsHouston Cougars

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Purdue Boilermakers vs Houston Cougars game

Houston Cougars Preview

The Houston Cougars have a 32-4 record this season and were placed first in the Big 12. Houston is coming off an 81-76 win over Gonzaga in their round of 32. The Cougars are 19-15-2 against the spread, and 16-20 in over/under. 

Offensively, Houston is averaging 74.5 points per game, which is 165th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 58.4 points per game, which is the best in the nation. The Cougars shoot with 45.7% from the field (119th), and with 39.8% from beyond the arc, which is the 4th-best nationally. The Cougars shoot with 74.1% from the free-throw line (111th), and are grabbing 33 rebounds per game (143rd).

LJ Cryer leads Houston in scoring with an average of 15.6 points, while Emanuel Sharp adds 12.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.

Purdue Boilermakers Preview

The Purdue Boilermakers have a 24-11 record this season were placed 6th in the Big 10. Purdue is coming off a 76-62 win over McNeese in their round of 32. The Boilermakers are 19-16 against the spread, and 19-15-1 in over/under. 

Offensively, Purdue is averaging 77.7 points per game, which ranks 80th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 70.6 points per game (151st). The Boilermakers shoot with 48.8% from the field, which is the 12th-best in the nation, and with 38.5% from beyond the arc, which is the 16th-best nationally. The Boilermakers shoot with 72.1% from the free-throw line (172nd), and are grabbing 32.8 rebounds per game (317th).

Trey Kaufmann-Renn leads Purdue in scoring this season, with an average of 20.2 points and a team-high 6.2 rebounds, while Braden Smith adds 16.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and a team-high 8.7 assists per game.

Why the Houston Cougars will win

• Houston has won each of its last 18 night games.
• Purdue has lost each of its last four games against AP-ranked opponents.
• Houston has won the first half in each of its last 13 games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Purdue Boilermakers will win

• Purdue has won 22 of its last 25 night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Houston has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games against Top 8 Seeds.
• Purdue has won the first half in 28 of its last 32 night games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Purdue’s last 19 night games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 134+ points.
• Five of Houston’s last six NCAA Tournament night games have produced a total of 132+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Houston ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent points per game this season (58.1).
• Houston ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent field goals made per game this season (19.4).
• Purdue ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (49.6%).
• Purdue ranks T357th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (1.7).

Purdue Boilermakers vs Houston Cougars Prediction

In this Purdue Boilermakers vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Houston is coming as -8.5-point favorites. Houston is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been far better away from home than Purdue, as they have 10 road wins, while Purdue just five. 

Houston is coming into this matchup red-hot, as they have 15 consecutive wins, and have been very good against the spread in the postseason, with a 3-1-1 ATS record. On the other hand, Purdue is 3-1 in the postseason, but just 2-2 against the spread. Purdue is also 5-6 in their last 11 games. Both teams are also being playing some lower-scoring games in the tournament, as they are 6-2 to the under in their last 8 games combined. I lean towards Houston in this game, but 8 points are too much for such an important game. I like more a low-scoring game, as Houston boasts the best defense in the nation, and both teams have been playing very good defense in the tournament. The number is low, but it is justified, so take the under 131.5 points in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 131.5