Oregon State vs UCF Prediction 4/1/25 College Basketball Picks

The Oregon State Beavers and the UCF Knights meet Tuesday in college basketball action in the College Basketball Crown Tournament from MGM Arena. Here’s an Oregon State vs UCF prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Oregon State vs UCF pick. We will examine:

The Oregon State Beavers recent form and player performance

The UCF Knights recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Oregon State Beavers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UCF Knights

Recent betting trends in games played between Oregon State and UCF

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Oregon State vs UCF game

Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview

The Beavers had a pretty good run going for most of the season, but they’ve come up empty over the last three games. Oregon State was sitting at a solid 16-6 back in late January, taking losses to only Oregon, North Texas, Nebraska, LMU, Santa Clara and San Francisco. The regular season ended on a 4-5 run with losses to Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Portland, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s again. After a conference tournament loss to Pepperdine, the Beavers had a 20-12 overall record across 32 games.

Back on March 8 in the West Coast Conference Tournament matchup with Pepperdine, the Beavers were up 40-38 going into the second half. Oregon State was outscored 39-33 the rest of the way however, resulting in a 77-73 defeat in the end. Damarco Minor was the team’s leading scorer in the losing effort with 22 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Nate Kingz added 18 points with four rebounds and four assists, while Parsa Fallah had 16 points.

UCF Knights Betting Preview

Over on the Knights’ side, they got off to a great start this year but couldn’t keep the success going as the season wore on. UCF was 10-2 over their first dozen outings, then beat only Colorado, Arizona State and TCU in the next seven. After a seven-game losing streak in February, the Knights finished off the regular season with a 3-2 run featuring wins over Utah, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. After a conference tournament win over Utah, the Knights fell to Kansas in the next game for a 17-16 overall record this season.

Matched up against Kansas on March 12 in the Big 12 Championship tournament, the Knights made up a three-point halftime deficit and went to overtime but eventually lost a tough one 98-94. Keyshawn Hall led the team on a double-double with 25 points, 11 rebounds and three steals, while Darius Johnson added 22 points with seven assists and four rebounds.

Why the Oregon State Beavers will win

• Oregon State has won eight of its last nine day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• UCF has lost five of its last six day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the UCF Knights will win

• Oregon State has lost six of its last seven games at MGM Grand Garden Arena.
• UCF has won nine of its last 11 games against non-Conference opponents.
• Oregon State has lost the first half in 13 of its last 16 games played at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Oregon State’s last 22 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
• Forty-five of UCF’s last 52 day games have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Oregon State ranks 24th among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (117.6).
• Oregon State ranks 24th among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (106.0).
• UCF ranks T22nd among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (62.6).
• UCF ranks 23rd among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (77.9%).

Oregon State vs UCF Prediction

I’ll lean toward UCF but you could make a case either way. The Knights couldn’t quite outlast a good Kansas team in their last outing despite shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 42.4 percent (14-of-33) from three-point range. The 46-37 rebounding deficit and 14 turnovers for 18 Jayhawks points didn’t help matters. It’s been a choppy run lately for UCF but they’ve scored well with 76 or more points in seven of the last eight games (a 4-4 stretch).

As for Oregon State, they shot pretty well against Pepperdine with 44.4 percent from the field and 31.8 percent (7-of-22) from outside along with a 32-30 rebounding advantage. The Beavers were quite permissive on the other side though, giving up 50 percent from the floor and 10-of-25 (40 percent) from 3-point range. The Waves were pretty opportunistic on 11 points off nine Beavers turnovers as well. Oregon State is sitting on three straight losses, but they’ve scored 72 or more points in two of those. Trouble is, the Beavers have given up 73 or more points in five straight. UCF should have some scoring opportunities in this one.