Your cart is currently empty!
Missouri State vs Liberty Prediction 3/11/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks
Pick details
| MATCHUP | Missouri State Bears | Liberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 15-17 | 25-6 |
| Spread | +5.5 -108 | -5.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | +210 | -258 |
| Total | Over 142.5 (-115) | Under 142.5 (-105) |
| Where | Propst Arena, Huntsville, AL | |
| When | Wednesday, March 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Liberty Flames Preview
The Liberty Flames have a 25-6 overall record and a 17-3 record in the CUSA. They are coming off a 79-72 home win against Sam Houston and their previous three games were a 76-71 home loss against Louisiana Tech, an 81-78 road win against Jacksonville State and a 74-65 road loss against Kennesaw State.
Offensively, Liberty averages 78.5 points per game, while allowing 70.2 points per game defensively. The Flames shoot with 52% from the field and grab 29.1 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.3 assists per game. They average 3.5 blocks per game and 6.3 steals per game defensively.
Brett Decker Jr. leads Liberty in scoring, with an average of 16.9 points per game, while shooting with 51% from the field and 83.8% from the free throw line. Zach Cleveland is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.4 per game, adding a team-high 6.9 assists.
Missouri State Bears Preview
The Missouri State Bears have a 15-17 overall record and an 8-12 record in the CUSA. They are coming off a 75-72 home win against FIU and their previous three games were a 75-63 home loss against Middle Tennessee, an 87-74 home win against Western Kentucky and an 86-81 road loss against Sam Houston.
Offensively, Missouri State averages 75.3 points per game, while allowing 73.9 points per game defensively. The Bears shoot with 45% from the field and grab 34.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.5 assists per game. They average 3.1 blocks per game and 7 steals per game defensively.
Keith Palek III leads Missouri State in scoring, with an average of 17.7 points per game, while shooting with 41.8% from the field and 71.2% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 3.6 assists. Michael Osei-Bonsu is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.3 per game.
Missouri State Bears @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: March 11, 2026
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won 18 of its last 20 night games against Conference opponents.
- Missouri State has lost 14 of its last 15 Wednesday games against Conference opponents.
- Missouri State has lost the first half in each of its last four games played at neutral venues.
Why the Missouri State Bears will win
- Missouri State has won four of its last five Conference Tournament night games.
- Liberty has lost three of its last four games played at neutral venues.
- Liberty has lost the first half in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Missouri State’s last nine night games have produced a total of 147+ points.
- Seven of Liberty’s last eight night games have produced a total of 144+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (61.6%).
- Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (63.9%).
- Missouri State ranks 360th among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (4.6).
- Missouri State ranks 36th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (24.4).
Missouri State vs Liberty Prediction
In this Missouri State vs Liberty Prediction, Liberty is coming as -5.5 favorites. Liberty has been the better team this season but have been weaker against the spread, as they are 12-16 ATS, compared to Missouri State’s 16-13. Liberty is also just 2-3 in its last 5 games and a terrible 2-8 ATS in its last 10, while Missouri State is 2-8 in its last 10 games but 3-1 against the spread. Liberty won their regular season meeting but Missouri State managed to keep it close and cover the spread and I expect the same scenario today. Take Missouri State and get the +5.5 points.
