Cal Poly vs UC Santa Barbara Prediction 2/27/25 College Basketball Picks

The Cal Poly Mustangs are visiting the UCSB Gauchos on Thursday, February 27th at The Thunderdome. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cal Poly Mustangs vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction. We will examine:

The UCSB Gauchos’ recent form and player performance

The Cal Poly Mustangs’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UCSB Gauchos

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cal Poly Mustangs

Recent betting trends in games played between the Cal Poly Mustangs and UCSB Gauchos

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cal Poly Mustangs vs UCSB Gauchos game

UCSB Gauchos Preview

The UCSB Gauchos have an 18-10 record this season and are sitting in 5th place in the Big West. The Gauchos are coming off a 58-56 win over Long Beach State. The Gauchos are 11-15 against the spread, and 11-15 in over/under while having a 11-4 home record.

Offensively, UCSB is averaging 73.8 points per game, which ranks 190th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 66.3 points per game (38th). The Gauchos shoot 47.2% from the field (56th) and 38.8% from beyond the arc, which is the 13th-best in the nation. The Gauchos shoot 75.6% from the free-throw line (59th) and are grabbing 34.5 rebounds per game (237th). 

Stephan Swenson leads UCSB in scoring this season, with an average of 13 points, 3.7 rebounds, and a team-high 4.3 assists, while Kenny Pohto adds 12.5 points and a team-high 6.5 rebounds per game.

Cal Poly Mustangs Preview

The Cal Poly Mustangs have an 11-17 record this season and are sitting in 9th place in the Big West. They are coming off a 112-100 win over UC Riverside. The Mustangs are 13-14 against the spread, and 17-10 in over/under, while having a 4-12 road record.

Offensively, Cal Poly is averaging 80.5 points per game, which is 40th in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing 83.9 points per game, which is the third-worst nationally. The Mustangs shoot 45.6% from the field (135th) and 34.4% from beyond the arc (156th). The Mustangs shoot 75.8% from the free throw line (54th) and are grabbing 35.4 rebounds per game (183rd).

Owen Koonce leads Cal Poly in scoring this season, with an average of 16.9 points and a team-high 5.2 rebounds, while Jarred Hyder adds 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and a team-high 3.2 assists per game.

Why the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos will win

• UC Santa Barbara has won each of its last 15 games against Cal Poly.
• Cal Poly has lost each of its last 10 games at The Thunderdome.
• Cal Poly has lost the first half in each of its last four games at The Thunderdome.

Why the Cal Poly Mustangs will win

• Cal Poly has won five of its last six games following a home win.
• The road team has won the first half in each of Cal Poly’s last five games.

Matchup/League Facts

• UC Santa Barbara ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (1.9).
• UC Santa Barbara ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for a three-point percentage this season (38.8%).
• Cal Poly ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (9.8).
• Cal Poly ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for pace this season (74.0).

Cal Poly Mustangs vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction

UCSB has won their last 10 meetings against Cal Poly, but Cal Poly is 8-1-1 against the spread. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings, and in their previous meeting earlier this season, UCSB won 75-72 on the road, not covering the spread, as the game went under the point total.

In this Cal Poly Mustangs vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction, UCSB is coming as a -6.5 home favorites. UCSB is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been very strong at home, while Cal Poly is struggling on the road. Both teams are in good form lately, as the Gauchos are 5-2 in their last 7 games and the Mustangs 5-3 in their last 8. Both teams have been playing some higher-scoring games lately, as they are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games combined. Cal Poly is coming off an insanely high-scoring game, where 212 total points were scored. I expect another high-scoring affair, so take the over.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 157.5