Cal Poly vs UC San Diego Prediction 3/11/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Cal Poly Mustangs and UC San Diego Tritons meet Wednesday in the college basketball Big West Championship at the Lee’s Family Forum. Here’s a Cal Poly vs. UC San Diego prediction. This article will include a Cal Poly vs. UC San Diego pick.

Cal Poly Mustangs Betting Preview

The Cal Poly Mustangs lost to UC Irvine and beat Cal State Bakersfield. Cal Poly has won 5 of its last 7 games.

The Cal Poly Mustangs are averaging 85.2 points on 43.4 percent shooting and allowing 88.2 points on 46 percent shooting. Hamad Mousa is averaging 20.4 points and 6.3 rebounds, while Cayden Ward is averaging 14.6 points and 6.3 rebounds. Peter Bandelj is the third double-digit scorer and Jess Esso Essis is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Cal Poly Mustangs are shooting 33.6 percent from beyond the arc and 78.6 percent from the free throw line. The Cal Poly Mustangs are allowing 34.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.9 rebounds per game.

UC San Diego Tritons Betting Preview

The UC San Diego Tritons lost to Cal State Fullerton and beat UC Santa Barbara. UC San Diego has won 6 of its last 7 games.

The UC San Diego Tritons are averaging 76 points on 46 percent shooting and allowing 70 points on 41.6 percent shooting. Leo Beath is averaging 12.4 points and 4.9 rebounds, while Bol Dengdit is averaging 11.1 points and 5.3 rebounds. Hudson Mayes is the third double-digit scorer and Alex Chaikin is grabbing 2 rebounds. The UC San Diego Tritons are shooting 33.5 percent from beyond the arc and 69 percent from the free throw line. The UC San Diego Tritons are allowing 32.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 33.7 rebounds per game.

Why the UC San Diego Tritons will win

• UC San Diego has won nine of its last 10 games played at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of UC San Diego’s last 14 games against conference opponents has produced a total of 156 or fewer points.
• Five of Cal Poly’s last six games against conference opponents have produced a total of 161+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• UC San Diego ranks 49th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (12.3).
• Cal Poly ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.8).
• Cal Poly ranks 361st among Division 1 teams for opponent points per game this season (85.4).

Cal Poly vs UC San Diego Prediction

These teams split the two meetings this season, but it was UC San Diego who dominated the most recent match a couple of weeks ago. UC San Diego has simply been the better team this season and it’s the defense that’s probably the difference. Cal Poly is a below-average defensive side and it doesn’t shoot the ball well enough offensively to make up for it. This should be a win for UC San Diego. The line is reasonable. Give me UC San Diego and the chalk.

Randy Chambers's Pick: UC San Diego -5.5