Baylor vs Mississippi State Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Baylor Bears meet Friday in college basketball action from the Bridgestone Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mississippi State vs. Baylor prediction.

Mississippi State Recap

The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into the NCAA tournament repping the SEC, finishing with an overall record of 21-12 with an 8-10 mark in SEC play. As the 10-seed in the SEC tournament, Mississippi State took down LSU before falling short against Missouri in the second round.

Bulldogs Making Third Straight NCAA Tournament Appearance

Josh Hubbard leads the Bulldogs in scoring with 18.7 PPG and 3.2 APG while KeShawn Murphy has 11.8 PPG with 7.5 RPG to lead the Bulldogs in rebounding up to this point in the year and to round out the pair of double-digit scorers for Mississippi State up to this point in the year. Claudell Harris Jr. has 9.5 PPG with 3 RPG and Riley Kugel has 9.2 PPG with 3 RPG and RJ Melendez also has 8.9 PPG with 4.4 RPG while Cameron Matthews has 7.2 PPG with 6.6 RPG and a team-high 3.6 APG to lead the Bulldogs in assists. As a team, Mississippi State is averaging 79.8 PPG on 45.1% shooting from the field, 31.4% from three and 70% from the foul line this season.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won 12 of its last 13 games against non-Conference opponents.
• Baylor has lost each of its last three NCAA Tournament games against Top 8 Seeds.

Baylor Recap

The Baylor Bears come into the NCAA tournament on behalf of the Big 12, finishing the year with an overall record of 19-14 including a 10-10 mark in Big 12 conference play. As the 7-seed in the Big 12 tournament, Baylor took down Kansas State before getting knocked out by Texas Tech in the quarterfinals.

Bears Making 6th Straight NCAA Tournament Appearance

Norchad Omier leads Baylor in scoring and rebounding, averaging a double-double per game with 15.9 PPG and 10.9 RPG while Robert Wright III has 11.3 PPG with a team-high 4.3 APG to lead Baylor in the assist department up to this point in the season. Jeremy Roach has chipped in 10.3 PPG with 2.7 APG while VJ Edgecombe has 15 PPG with 5.6 RPG along with 3.3 APG and 2.1 SPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Baylor up to this point in the year. Jayden Nunn has 9 PPG with 2.8 RPG while Jalen Celestine has 7.2 PPG with 3.3 RPG. As a team, Baylor is averaging 76.5 PPG on 44.8% shooting from the field, 35.1% from behind the arc and 74.5% from the foul line so far this season.

Why the Baylor Bears will win

• Baylor has won nine of its last 10 day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Mississippi State has lost three of its last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Mississippi State’s last seven games have produced a total of 150+ points.
• Seven of Baylor’s last eight games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 145+ points.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction

I’m on Baylor here. I just think that this is a decent matchup for the Bears, who hit their threes at a high rate and that’s the weakness of Mississippi State’s defense, defending the perimeter. The Bears are also a great offensive rebounding team and they hit their free throws at a higher rate. If this becomes a free throw contest down the stretch, I trust Baylor in this spot a lot more than I trust Mississippi State right now. Give me Baylor in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Baylor +1.5