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Alabama State vs Auburn Prediction 3/20/25 College Basketball Picks
Pick details
Auburn (28-5) vs Alabama State (20-15)
March 20, 2025 at 02:50 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Auburn -32.5 — Over/Under: 149.5
The Alabama State Hornets and Auburn Tigers meet Thursday in the college basketball First Round at the Rupp Arena. Here’s an Alabama State vs Auburn Prediction. This article will include an Alabama State vs Auburn Pick.
Alabama State Hornets Betting Preview
The Alabama State Hornets are coming off wins over Southern, Grambling, Texas Southern, Jackson State, and St. Francis. Alabama State went from 9-14 to winning 11 of its last 12 games.
The Alabama State Hornets are averaging 73.4 points on 40.5 percent shooting and allowing 72.3 points on 43.5 percent shooting. CJ Hines is averaging 14.3 points and 3 rebounds, while Amarr Knox is averaging 14.4 points and 1.9 rebounds. TJ Madlock is the third double-digit scorer and Micah Simpson is grabbing 1.6 rebounds. The Alabama State Hornets are shooting 33 percent from beyond the arc and 69.2 percent from the free throw line. The Alabama State Hornets are allowing 33.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32.4 rebounds per game.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
The Auburn Tigers recently played Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Auburn has seen three of its five losses come in its last four games.
The Auburn Tigers are averaging 83.9 points on 48.3 percent shooting and allowing 69.6 points on 40.9 percent shooting. Johni Broome is averaging 18.9 points and 3.1 assists, while Chad Baker-Mazara is averaging 2.6 points and 3.2 rebounds. Tahaad Pettiford is the third double-digit scorer and Miles Kelly is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Auburn Tigers are shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc and 74 percent from the free throw line. The Auburn Tigers are allowing 29.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.1 rebounds per game.
Why the Auburn Tigers will win
- Auburn has won 24 of its last 25 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Alabama State has lost 26 of its last 30 day games against non-conference opponents.
- Alabama State has lost the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
Why the Alabama State Hornets will win
- Alabama State has won 11 of its last 12 games.
- Auburn has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games.
Total Points Facts
- Ten of Alabama State’s last 11 games have produced a total of 146 or fewer points.
- Each of Auburn’s last five games against the Southwestern Athletic Conference Conference have produced a total of 144 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (101.9).
- Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for points per possession this season (1.24).
- Alabama State ranks 358th among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (39.7).
- Alabama State ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.2).
Alabama State vs Auburn Injury Report
Neither Alabama State nor Auburn have a player listed on its injury report.
Alabama State vs Auburn Prediction
I considered Alabama State and the points, as Auburn finished the regular season with some concerning performances. On top of a tournament game, this is a chance for Alabama State to prove itself in an in-state battle. Alabama State doesn’t get these chances often and should be thrilled about it. The problem is Alabama State doesn’t shoot the ball well and that’s going to be a problem if Auburn plays to the level we’re used to seeing. Also, Auburn has had many days to stew over how it finished things, and that could lead to a motivated performance. This is a ton of points, but on paper, this looks like your typical first-round blowout where the top seed has its way from the start. I’ll lay the points with Auburn.
