UMass vs Missouri Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a UMass vs Missouri prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

UMass Minutemen Betting Preview

The UMass Minutemen are 0-3 this year after they lost to Iowa by a score of 47-7 in their last game. UMass trailed 20-0 after the first quarter and 30-7 at halftime, before getting blown out in the second half for the loss. The Minutemen were out gained by a total of 435-119, went 0-10 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. AJ Hairston went 4-8 for 56 yards, while Rocko Griffin rushed 10 times for 28 yards. Jacquon Gibson led the UMass receivers with five catches for 37 yards in the loss. The UMass defense recorded two sacks and three tackles for loss in the game. 

UMass started the season with a 42-10 loss to Temple and a 27-26 loss to Bryant in their first two games. The Minutemen are averaging 14.3 points per game with 183.0 passing yards and 76.7 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 38.7 points against per game this season. AJ Hairston has completed 58.3% of his passes for 84 yards, while Jacquon Gibson has caught 24 passes for 258 yards. Rocko Griffin is the leading rusher for UMass with 142 yards and one score on 30 carries this year. 

Missouri Tigers Betting Preview

The Missouri Tigers are 4-0 (1-0) this season after they defeated South Carolina by a score of 29-20 last week. Missouri trailed 14-12 at halftime and 20-18 in the fourth quarter, but they scored the last 11 points to seal the win. The Tigers out gained SC by a total of 456-293, went 7-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Beau Pribula went 16-27 for 171 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Ahmad Hardy rushed 22 times for 138 yards and one score. Marquis Johnson led the Missouri receivers with seven catches for 80 yards in the win. The Mizzou defense recorded five sacks and eight tackles for loss in the game. 

Missouri has also defeated Central Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana so far this season. The Tigers are averaging 46.0 points per game with 256.3 passing yards and 298.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 16.8 points against per game this season. Beau Pribula has completed 72.4% of his passes for 962 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Kevin Coleman Jr has caught 27 passes for 278 yards and one score. Ahmad Hardy is the leading rusher with 600 yards and six scores on 79 carries this season. 

Why Missouri will beat UMass

Missouri has won each of its last 20 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Massachusetts has lost 29 of its last 30 road games against non-conference opponents.
Missouri has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games in September.
Missouri has won the first half in 25 of its last 32 games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

Each of Massachusetts’ last six games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of Missouri’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Missouri has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last 10 games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Missouri ranks T2nd among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (114).
Massachusetts ranks 134th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (47).
Massachusetts ranks 133rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (13.7).

UMass vs Missouri Prediction 

Missouri comes into this contest as a huge favorite and they should do whatever they want on both sides of the ball. The Tigers blew out Central Arkansas by a score of 61-6 in their first game of the season and Louisiana by a score of 52-10 in their third game, so they should have no issues with UMass here. The Minutemen just lost by 40 points to Iowa and dropped a game to FCS Bryant a few weeks back, so this is going to be a tough season for them. This game really depends on how many points Missouri wants to score, but in today’s age of the CFP, the more points the better. Take the Tigers to win by 45+ here. 

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