Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate an Oklahoma State vs Tulsa prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 5th at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 1 matchup. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 1-11 (0-9) last year and they finished last in the Big 12 standings. Oklahoma State started the season with a 27-7 win over UT-Martin, but they lost to Oregon 69-3 and Tulsa 19-12 in the next two games. The Cowboys lost their last 11 games, but did play better in the last three games, which were all one score losses. Oklahoma State scored 17 points or fewer in nine of their 12 games and they allowed 38+ points in seven of their 12. The Cowboys scored 14.2 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 33.3 points against per game on defense. 

This year, Oklahoma State has a new head coach and they have a ton of new faces, but we will see if that translates to wins. The Cowboys will have Drew Mestemaker at quarterback, who was elite last year at North Texas. Oklahoma State also brought over North Texas’ running back and leading receiver, but the offensive line is a potential issue. On defense, the Cowboys do return some production, but their biggest issue could be fatigue, as the offense is going to move very fast. 

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Preview

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane went 4-8 (1-7) last season and they finished second to last in the American standings. Tulsa started the season with a 35-7 win over Abilene Christian, but they lost seven of the next eight games, but did defeat Oklahoma State 19-12 in week four. The Golden Hurricane also defeated Oregon State and Army, but it was a disappointing season. Tulsa allowed 31+ points in seven of their last ten games, but the offense wasn’t awful. The Golden Hurricane scored 23.2 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 28.9 points against per game on defense. 

This season, Tulsa will have Baylor Hayes back at quarterback and the offensive line sounds like it will be solid, but the skill position players are a question mark. The Golden Hurricane also need to improve their turnover numbers, which were not good in 2025. On defense, Tulsa should be better than they were last year, but they are replacing a good amount of production with the transfer portal. 

Why the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will win

• Oklahoma State has lost each of its last 10 road games.
• Tulsa has won each of its last four home openers.
• The underdog has covered the spread in five of Tulsa’s last six games.
• Oklahoma State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six season openers as a favorite.
• Tulsa has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys will win

• The favorite has won each of Oklahoma State’s last nine games.
• Tulsa has lost each of its last five home games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference.
• Oklahoma State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road openers.
• Tulsa has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five home games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference.
• The road team has won the first half in each of Oklahoma State’s last three games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Tulsa’s last nine games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Oklahoma State’s last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Player Prop Facts

• Elijah Green ranked T7th amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) last season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• Caleb Hawkins ranked 1st amongst FBS players for touchdowns (29) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Tulsa ranked T109th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters last season (-2.9).
• Tulsa ranked 108th among FBS teams for time of possession per game last season (28:34).
• Oklahoma State ranked 135th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters last season (-6.6).
• Oklahoma State ranked 134th among FBS teams for points per game last season (14.2).

Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Prediction 

Oklahoma State had a terrible 2025 season, but they made a lot of changes and should be much better this year. The Cowboys offense should be very fast paced and I trust Mestemaker to have another good season. Tulsa also struggled last year, but they beat Oklahoma State on the road. The Golden Hurricane should be improved, but this is a tough game to start with, especially against Mestemaker. Take Oklahoma State to cover on the road.

David Racey's Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5