Florida State vs Florida Prediction 11/29/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Florida State vs Florida prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, November 29th at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 14 matchup. 

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles are 5-6 (2-6) this season after they lost to NC State by a score of 21-11 in their last game. Florida State trailed 7-3 at halftime and was outscored 14-8 in the second half for the loss. The Seminoles out gained NC State by a total of 383-286, went 5-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-0 in the game. Tommy Castellanos went 16-32 for 203 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while also rushing for 76 yards on 11 carries. Duce Robinson led the receivers with four catches for 74 yards and one score in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Florida State defeated Virginia Tech by a score of 34-14, but lost to Clemson by a score of 24-10 before that. The Seminoles have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they are currently near the bottom of the ACC standings. Florida State has scored 34.1 points per game with 254.6 passing yards and 223.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.4 points against per game this season. Tommy Castellanos has thrown for 2,520 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while Duce Robinson has 53 receptions for 1,021 yards and six scores this season. 

Florida Gators Betting Preview

The Florida Gators are 3-8 (2-6) this season after they lost to Tennessee by a score of 31-11 in their last game. Florida trailed 31-0 at halftime, but did win the second half 11-0 in the loss. The Gators were out gained by a total of 452-261, went 2-9 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. DJ Lagway went 11-17 for 116 yards and one touchdown, while Jadan Baugh rushed 18 times for 96 yards. Baugh also led the receivers with two catches for 35 yards and one score in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Florida lost to Ole Miss by a score of 34-24 and Kentucky by a score of 38-7. The Gators have lost four games in a row and they are currently tied for 11th in the SEC standings. Florida has scored 19.9 points per game with 207.9 passing yards and 124.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.3 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 2,096 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while Jadan Baugh has rushed 182 times for 904 yards and six scores this season. 

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Florida has won nine of its last 10 November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Florida State has lost each of its last three games against teams from Florida.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has covered the spread in nine of Florida State’s last 11 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida State’s last eight November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Florida’s last seven games as a favorite in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida ranks 127th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (35.3).
• Florida ranks T126th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-3.6).
• Florida State ranks 7th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (51.0).
• Florida State ranks T9th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (478.0).

Florida State vs Florida Prediction 

Florida comes into this matchup looking to snap a four game losing streak and they will be at home for this game, but they have allowed at least 31 points in three straight games. The Gators have had a very rough season, but they have the chance to keep FSU from getting to six wins here. Florida State has also had a disappointing season, but their defense has been solid for the most part. This will be an interesting game, as both sides are just trying to finish the season, but I think Florida is the play at home. Take the Gators here, as they finally beat up on a lesser opponent.

David Racey is 140-118 (54%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!

David Racey's Pick: Florida ML