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Baylor vs SMU Prediction 9/6/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Baylor (0-1) vs SMU (1-0)
September 6, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: SMU -3 — Over/Under: +64.5
Baylor and SMU meet Saturday in college football action from Gerald J Ford Stadium. Here’s a Baylor vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs pick. We will examine:
The Baylor Bears’ recent form and player performance
The SMU Mustangs’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Bears
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Mustangs
Recent betting trends in games played between Baylor and SMU
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Baylor vs SMU game.
There were a ton of expectations surrounding Baylor this season but there is a real chance they could start the season 0-2. The Bears faced off against the Auburn Tigers in the first game, and the defense was a major issue. The offense scored 24 points, but the defense gave up 38, and that led to the defeat. At halftime, they were down 17-10 and in the second half, it didn’t get any better. What made the loss even more disappointing was how good their quarterback played, and they wasted it.
Sawyer Robertson had a huge game and he completed 27 of his 48 passes for 419 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Bryson Washington finished with 14 carries for 59 yards. Wide receiver Kole Wilson also had a huge game, finishing with eight catches for 134 yards. The offense isn’t a concern, but in this game, if they want to find success, they are going to need the defense to be a whole lot better.
Baylor has won six of its last eight games.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference.
Baylor has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
It was a dominant first game for SMU, although they didn’t have as tough of game as Baylor. SMU faced off against East Texas A&M, and they were able to secure the 42-13 victory. At halftime, they were up 17-3, and by the time the defense started to struggle, most of the starters were out of the game. Even though they didn’t give up many points until the 4th quarter, they still allowed the Lions to go for 351 yards, and that has to be a concern right now.
The offense for SMU finished with 400 yards. They had 260 passing yards, and another 140 yards on the ground. Kevin Jennings had a strong game and he completed 22 of his 30 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. They used mostly a balanced running attack and three different players finished with at least six carries. Wide receiver Romello Brinson finished with seven catches for 121 yards and one touchdown.
SMU has won 15 of its last 16 games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Baylor has lost eight of its last nine September games against AP-ranked teams.
Baylor has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
SMU has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games as a home favorite against teams from Texas.
If you like high-scoring games, make sure to tune into this one, because defense is going to be optional here. SMU in the first game scored 42 points, and they are going to have no issue running up the score here. Baylor has the real deal with their quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. He threw for 419 yards in game one, and he’s going to have a huge game here. This feels like a game that is going finish 45-42 or 54-51. Who’s going to win it? I’m not confident in that, but I do know this game is going to go well over the total. Back the over, and enjoy a rocking chair winner.
The Baylor Bears’ recent form and player performance
The SMU Mustangs’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Bears
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Mustangs
Recent betting trends in games played between Baylor and SMU
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Baylor vs SMU game.
Another Tough Test for Baylor
There were a ton of expectations surrounding Baylor this season but there is a real chance they could start the season 0-2. The Bears faced off against the Auburn Tigers in the first game, and the defense was a major issue. The offense scored 24 points, but the defense gave up 38, and that led to the defeat. At halftime, they were down 17-10 and in the second half, it didn’t get any better. What made the loss even more disappointing was how good their quarterback played, and they wasted it.
Sawyer Robertson had a huge game and he completed 27 of his 48 passes for 419 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Bryson Washington finished with 14 carries for 59 yards. Wide receiver Kole Wilson also had a huge game, finishing with eight catches for 134 yards. The offense isn’t a concern, but in this game, if they want to find success, they are going to need the defense to be a whole lot better.
Why Baylor Will Beat SMU
Baylor has won six of its last eight games.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference.
Baylor has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
Dominant First Game for SMU
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It was a dominant first game for SMU, although they didn’t have as tough of game as Baylor. SMU faced off against East Texas A&M, and they were able to secure the 42-13 victory. At halftime, they were up 17-3, and by the time the defense started to struggle, most of the starters were out of the game. Even though they didn’t give up many points until the 4th quarter, they still allowed the Lions to go for 351 yards, and that has to be a concern right now.
The offense for SMU finished with 400 yards. They had 260 passing yards, and another 140 yards on the ground. Kevin Jennings had a strong game and he completed 22 of his 30 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. They used mostly a balanced running attack and three different players finished with at least six carries. Wide receiver Romello Brinson finished with seven catches for 121 yards and one touchdown.
Why SMU Will Beat Baylor
SMU has won 15 of its last 16 games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Baylor has lost eight of its last nine September games against AP-ranked teams.
Baylor has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
SMU has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games as a home favorite against teams from Texas.
Baylor vs SMU Prediction
If you like high-scoring games, make sure to tune into this one, because defense is going to be optional here. SMU in the first game scored 42 points, and they are going to have no issue running up the score here. Baylor has the real deal with their quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. He threw for 419 yards in game one, and he’s going to have a huge game here. This feels like a game that is going finish 45-42 or 54-51. Who’s going to win it? I’m not confident in that, but I do know this game is going to go well over the total. Back the over, and enjoy a rocking chair winner.
Shane Mickle's Pick: Over
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