Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction College Football Picks 1/9/25

Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview

The Penn State Nittany Lions are 13-2 (8-1) this year after they defeated Boise State by a score of 31-14 in their last game. Penn State led 17-7 at halftime, but their lead was cut to 17-14 in the third quarter, before they scored the last 14 points in the game to pull away in the win. The Nittany Lions were out gained by a total of 412-387, won the turnover battle 4-1, and went 5-13 on third down in the game. Drew Allar threw for 171 yards and three touchdowns, while Kaytron Allen rushed for 134 yards on 17 carries in the win.  

Penn State also defeated SMU by a score of 38-10 in the first round of the CFP. The Nittany Lions dominated that game and were never in danger of losing. Penn State also has wins over West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland, while losing to Ohio State and Oregon. The Penn State offense has scored 35.1 points per game with 234.1 passing yards and 202.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 15.8 points against per game this season. Drew Allar has completed 67.4% of his passes for 3,192 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Tyler Warren has caught 98 passes for 1,158 yards and eight scores this year. 

Why Penn State will beat Notre Dame

• Penn State has won each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Penn State has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.

Why Notre Dame will beat Penn State

• Notre Dame has won each of its last eight games at neutral venues.
• Penn State has lost each of its last 10 games as an underdog.
• Notre Dame has covered the spread in each of its last 10 games as a favorite.
• Penn State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Six of Penn State's last seven Bowl games have gone OVER the total points line
• Five of Notre Dame's last six games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Penn State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (11.2).
• Penn State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (5.7).
• Notre Dame ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+7.1).
• Notre Dame ranks 4th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (11.6).

Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction 

Notre Dame was able to extend their winning streak with a double digit win over Georgia last time out and their defense has been lights out this year. The Fighting Irish don’t have a great passing attack, but their ground game has been strong all year. Penn State also has a strong ground game with Allen and Singleton, so we should see plenty of running plays here. Both defenses have been outstanding this year and with both teams trying to establish the run, I think we are going to see a lower scoring battle. Take the under here.