Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction College Football Picks 11/9/24

The Fresno State Bulldogs and the Air Force Falcons meet Saturday in college football action from Falcon Stadium. Here’s a Fresno State vs Air Force prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Fresno State vs Air Force pick. We will examine:

The Fresno State Bulldogs’ recent form and player performance

The Air Force Falcons’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Fresno State Bulldogs

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Air Force Falcons

Recent betting trends in games played between Fresno State and Air Force

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Fresno State vs Air Force game

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Bulldogs fell to Michigan in their opener this year, then took out Sacramento State, New Mexico State, and New Mexico in the next trio. Fresno State would then fall to UNLV and Washington State before wins over Nevada and San Jose State.

In the Hawaii game last weekend, the Bulldogs were up 20-7 going into the fourth quarter but gave up 14 unanswered points from there in a tough loss of 21-20. QB Miley Keene threw for 157 yards and a score. Elijah Gilliam led the rush with 10 totes for just 25 yards and a TD.

Air Force Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Air Force side, they beat Merrimack in their opener then hit a rough losing streak. The next six games were all losses as the Falcons fell to San Jose State, Baylor, Wyoming, Navy, New Mexico, and Colorado State.

Matched up against Army, the Falcons were within three points at the break. Air Force couldn’t find the end zone, however, and lost 20-3 in the end. Quentin Hayes and Josh Johnson combined for three interceptions, while Hayes led the rush with 61 yards on 22 carries.

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• Fresno State has lost each of its last three November games as a favorite.
• Air Force has won 25 of its last 31 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Falcon Stadium.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in November.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Air Force has lost each of its last seven games against conference opponents.
• Fresno State has won 23 of its last 30 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games against conference opponents.
• The favorite has covered the spread in three of Air Force’s last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Fresno State’s last four games as a favorite has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of Air Force’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Air Force ranks 134th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (5.8).
• Air Force ranks 134th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (1).
• Fresno State ranks T7th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (13).
• Fresno State ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.6).

Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction

I’ll lean toward Fresno State. That said, the Bulldogs need a good bounce-back effort here. Fresno State limped to just 176 yards (19 rushing), 14 first downs, and 3.4 yards per play in the loss to Hawaii. The Bulldogs were still in a winning position down the stretch, however. The good news is that the Fresno State defense hasn’t given up more than 21 points in three straight games.

As for Air Force, they were always going to have a tough time with a talented Army team—and that’s what happened. The Falcons weren’t too bad on defense though, giving up just 255 yards (207 rushing) and 14 first downs. Air Force did themselves in with three interceptions and 209 total yards (92 passing) on offense. Things will get a little easier here but I don’t think the Falcons cover.