Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction 9/17/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the New York Liberty meet Wednesday in WNBA First Round playoff action from the PHX Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty prediction.

Game One Recap

The New York Mercury took the series lead and pushed the Mercury to the brink in the best-of-three, picking up a 76-69 OT win in game one. Natasha Cloud led the Mercury with 23 points on 9 of 12 shooting with 3 threes along with 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals while Breanna Stewart had 18 points on 7 of 14 shooting with 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Sabrina Ionescu added 16 points with a team-high 7 assists and 6 rebounds and Leonie Fiebich had 10 points with 6 boards to cap off the scoring in double figures for New York in the win while Jonquel Jones chipped in a game-high 12 rebounds. For Phoenix, Kahleah Copper had 15 points while Alyssa Thomas flirted with a triple double, posting 14 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists and Satou Sabally had a night to forget, shooting just 2 of 17 for 9 points with 8 rebounds. DeWanna Bonner added 12 points on 5 of 7 shooting off of the bench with 3 steals to cap off the double-digit scoring for Phoenix in the loss.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year. As a team, Phoenix is averaging 83.1 PPG on 43.4% shooting from the field, 33.8% from three-point range and 78.8% from the foul line so far this season.

New York Liberty Stats

Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty in scoring with 18.8 PPG with 5.4 APG and 4.9 RPG while Breanna Stewart has 18 PPG with 6.6 RPG and 3.6 APG. Jonquel Jones has 14.7 PPG with a team-high 8.6 RPG to lead the Liberty in rebounding and Natasha Cloud has 10.1 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 5.3 APG to lead the Liberty in assists. Emma Meesseman also has 13.6 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Liberty so far this season. Kennedy Burke has also chipped in 8.4 PPG and 2.2 RPG while Leonie Fiebich has 8.8 PPG with 3.7 RPG as well this season. As a team, New York is averaging 85.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 35.7% from three and 83.3% from the foul line this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty Betting Trends: September 17, 2025

Why the New York Liberty will win

• The Mercury have lost 16 of their last 17 road games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The favorites have won each of the Mercury’s last eight playoff games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Liberty and Mercury.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last six night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Liberty have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following an overtime win.
• The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games following an overtime win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last four night games following an overtime loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Liberty’s last seven games as favorites following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last seven night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

New York Liberty Player Facts

• Sabrina Ionescu ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for assists per game (5.7) this season.
• Leonie Fiebich ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.5%) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Liberty rank 1st for opponent three-point percentage this season (31.5%).
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (83.7%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Prediction

I’m on the Liberty here. I think the only way that Phoenix was going to be able to win this series was if they held down home court which they did not do in game one. If Satou Sabally shoots half decent in that game, Phoenix likely wins, but this is where you’re really seeing the playoff pedigree of a team like New York and how key it is this time of year. I think that the Liberty close it out and move on here so give me New York.