Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction 9/23/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx meet Tuesday in WNBA Semifinal playoff action from the Target Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx prediction.

Game One Recap

The Minnesota Lynx drew first blood in the series by taking down the Mercury in game one by a final score of 82-69. Courtney Williams led Minnesota with 23 points on 11 of 19 shooting with 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 5 steals while Kayla McBride had 21 points with 6 rebounds and 4 threes and Napheesa Collier added 18 points with a team-high 9 rebound to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Minnesota in the win. Kahleah Copper led Phoenix with 22 points on 10 of 23 shooting while Alyssa Thomas had 18 points on 9 of 17 shooting with 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals. Satou Sabally added 10 points with 6 rebounds. Sami Whitcomb also had 11 points to cap off the double-digit scoring for Phoenix in defeat.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring with 23.4 PPG along with 7.7 RPG and 3.3 APG while Courtney Williams has added 13.9 PPG with 4.9 RPG and a team-high 6.3 APG to lead the Lynx in the assist department. Kayla McBride’s logged 15.1 PPG and 3.5 APG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Minnesota up to this point in the season. Alanna Smith’s added 9.9 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 2.8 APG and Natisha Hiedeman has 7.8 PPG with 2.6 APG so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends: September 23, 2025

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 15 games at Target Center against Lynx teams that held a winning record.
• The Lynx have won each of their last 11 home games against the Mercury.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last eight games at Target Center against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight night games at Target Center.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Mercury’s last five Semi-Finals games.
• The Lynx have lost four of their last five night games following a home win.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five night games following a home win.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in five of the Mercury’s last six Semi-Finals games.

Total Points Facts

• Ten of the Mercury’s last 11 night games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five games between the Lynx and Mercury have gone UNDER the total points line.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Napheesa Collier ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for points per game (22.9) this season.
• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction

I’m on the Lynx here. I’m just going to keep saying it. Until I have a reason to deviate from what’s worked, and that’s been taking the Lynx in this matchup, I’m going to keep siding with the Lynx. Minnesota’s dominated Phoenix far more often than not when these two lock up and I think the Mercury have issues again here. Give me Minnesota.