Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries Prediction 5/10/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Golden State Valkyries meet Sunday in WNBA action from the Chase Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries prediction.

Matchup History

The Phoenix Mercury won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on August 22nd, 2025 by a final score of 81-72, making the Mercury 4-0 all-tie against the Valkyries.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 99-66 win over the Las Vegas Aces last time out to sit at 1-0 on the year. After this game, the Mercury will head home for a game against the Minnesota Lynx.

Mercury Looking To Add On To Big Showing

Alyssa Thomas led the Mercury with 20 points on 9 of 17 shooting with a team-high 9 assists and 6 rebounds while Jovana Nogic added 19 points on 5 of 8 shooting with 4 threes. DeWanna Bonner added 13 points on 5 of 7 shooting with 3 threes and 7 rebounds and Kahleah Copper chipped in 13 points while Natasha Mack added 10 points with 15 rebounds for the double-double. Kiana Williams added 11 points off of the bench with 3 threes as well for Phoenix in the win. 

Golden State Valkyries Recap

The Golden State Valkyries come into this game looking to add on to their 91-80 win over the Seattle Storm last time out to sit at 1-0 on the year. After this game, the Valkyries will head home for a game against the Chicago Sky.

Valkyries Looking For Home Win

Janelle Salaun led the Valkyries with 20 points on 7 of 16 shooting with 5 threes while Veronica Burton added 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting with a team-high 6 assists and Kayla Thornton added 13 points on 4 of 9 shooting with 3 threes and a team-high 8 rebounds. Kaitlyn Chen chipped in 14 points on 5 of 10 shooting with a pair of threes.

Phoenix Mercury @ Golden State Valkyries Betting Trends: May 10, 2026

Why the Golden State Valkyries will win

• The Valkyries have won each of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Valkyries have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Valkyries have lost each of their last 11 games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have won each of their last seven night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last five road games on the second leg of a back-to-back against Western Conference opponents.
• The Valkyries have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games at Chase Center against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Mercury’s last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Thirteen of the Valkyries’ last 16 night games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Golden State Valkyries Player Facts

• Gabby Williams recorded at least 1 steal in 11 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Veronica Burton was the only qualified player in the league to lead their team in blocks per game (0.6) and free-throw percentage (87.8%) last season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranked 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) last season.
• Natasha Mack ranked 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (3.0) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Golden State Valkyries ranked 1st for opponent points per game last season (76.3).
• The Golden State Valkyries ranked 1st for opponent field goal percentage last season (40.5%).
• The Phoenix Mercury scored 80+ points in each of their last three games – equal-longest streak of any team since the Las Vegas Aces in 2025.
• The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 30 games – team’s longest streak since 2021.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Prediction

I’m on the Valkyries here. I think the Mercury are in for a bit of a letdown here after their herculean effort against the Aces and I think that there’s a bit of a letdown happening here. The Valkyries were one of the strongest home teams in the W last year and I think they get another here. Give me Golden State.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Golden State -2.5