Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Minnesota Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA Semifinal playoff action from the PHX Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Game Two Recap

The Phoenix Mercury evened the series up at one win apiece thanks to an 89-83 OT win over Minnesota last time out to tie the best-of-5 set. Satou Sabally led the Mercury with 24 points on 9 of 22 shooting with 5 threes and 9 rebounds while Alyssa Thomas had 19 points with 13 assists and 8 rebounds for the double-double. Sami Whitcomb added 13 points on 5 of 13 off of the bench with 3 threes to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Phoenix in the win. Napheesa Collier led the way with 24 points on 10 of 22 shooting with 6 rebounds and 3 steals while Kayla McBride added 21 points on 8 of 15 shooting with 4 threes. Courtney Williams contributed 20 points on 9 of 19 shooting with 7 rebounds, 9 assists and 3 steals and Alanna Smith added 13 points with 9 rebounds and 5 assists to cap off Minnesota’s scoring in double figures in the loss while the Lynx’s bench contributed just 3 points in the losing effort.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring with 23.4 PPG along with 7.7 RPG and 3.3 APG while Courtney Williams has added 13.9 PPG with 4.9 RPG and a team-high 6.3 APG to lead the Lynx in the assist department. Kayla McBride’s logged 15.1 PPG and 3.5 APG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Minnesota up to this point in the season. Alanna Smith’s added 9.9 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 2.8 APG and Natisha Hiedeman has 7.8 PPG with 2.6 APG so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Mercury’s last six Semi-Finals games.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last four games after coming off overtime.

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Lynx have won each of their last 15 games after losing as favorites.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last seven games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites after losing as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Lynx’s last five playoff games at PHX Arena have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Napheesa Collier ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for points per game (22.9) this season.
• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the equal-longest winning streak in the WNBA this season (1 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m going to take a shot on the Mercury and the points here. The Lynx were far more vulnerable on the road this season and all Phoenix had to do was win one. The Home team covered all five meetings to this point before Phoenix’s outright win on Tuesday and I think home court matters once again here. Give me the Mercury and the points.