Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 9/30/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces meet Tuesday in WNBA semi-final playoff action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.

Game Four Recap

The Indiana Fever forced a winner take all game five by picking up a 90-83 win in game four last time out. Kelsey Mitchell led the Fever with 25 points on 9 of 20 shooting with 4 assists while Aliyah Boston added 24 points along with 14 rebounds and 5 assists for the double-double along with 2 steals and 2 blocks. Odyssey Sims added 18 points to round out the trio of double-digit scorers for Indiana in the win and Lexie Hull added 7 points with 7 rebounds and 4 steals. For the Aces, A’ja Wilson had a team-high 31 points on 14 of 24 points with 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks. Jackie Young chipped in 18 points on 6 of 10 shooting with 9 assists to lead the Fever and Chelsea Gray added 12 points with 3 threes and 9 assists of her own in addition to 4 steals. 

Indiana Fever Stats

Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring with 20.3 PPG along with 3.4 APG while Caitlin Clark has 16.5 PPG with 5 RPG and a team-high 8.8 APG to lead the Fever in assists, but is out for the rest of the season with an injury. Aliyah Boston has 15.4 PPG with a team-high 8.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to lead the Fever in rebounding and Natasha Howard has 11.3 PPG with 6.7 RPG. Odyssey Sims has 10.6 PPG and 4.1 APG in 8 games played so far to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Fever so far this season. Lexie Hull has added 7 PPG with 4.4 RPG. Sophie Cunningham also has 8.6 PPG with 3.5 RPG as well on the year. 

Las Vegas Aces Stats

A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: September 30, 2025

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last nine night games at Michelob Ultra Arena.
• The Fever have lost 13 of their last 14 night games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Fever have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven night games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in five of their last six night games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Indiana Fever will win

• The Fever have won four of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Aces have lost four of their last five night games following a road loss.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games following a road loss.
• The Fever have covered the spread in five of their last six road games following a home win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last eight night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Fever’s last six night games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 46 games with 3+ assists this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Indiana Fever Player Facts

• Kelsey Mitchell ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for points per game (20.2) this season.
• Aliyah Boston ranks 1st amongst qualified Centers for assists per game (3.7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
• The Indiana Fever have recorded the largest comeback win after HT this season – trailed by 19 points @ Connecticut Sun on August 17.
• The Indiana Fever have scored 90+ points in 11 home games this season – most in the WNBA.

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I’ve gone back and forth on this one considering we’ve seen the good and bad of both teams through the first four games of this series. However, this for the better part of the season, was still a home dominant series and the Aces have been a team that normally responds well to adversity. I think Las Vegas bounces back one more time and hits the finals once again. Give me the Aces here.