Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction 4/26/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Kei Nishikori and Denis Shapovalov meet in the second round of the 2025 ATP Madrid Open on Saturday, April 26, 2025. Here’s our Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov prediction. This preview will also include a Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov pick.

Kei Nishikori Preview

Kei Nishikori is unseeded and started his tournament in the first round. Nishikori defeated Australia’s Aleksandar Vukic in three sets. The match took 28 games to decide and lasted precisely two hours. Nishikori won the first set 6-4, breaking Vukic’s serve twice and losing his serve once. He saved two of three breakpoints on his serve. Nishikori hit 12 winners and 14 unforced errors in the set.

In the second set, Vukic got the only break of serve to lead 3-1 and consolidated to level the match at 6-3. In the third set, Nishikori raised his level and broke Vukic for the third time. He needed four match points to seal the win. Overall, Nishikori finished the match with 28 winners and 37 unforced errors, including four aces and three double faults. He landed 62% of first serves in play and won 74% of first serve points (37/50). Nishikori won 58% of second serve points (18/31) and saved two of four breakpoints. Nishikori improves to 12-8 for the season. The Japanese man has won five of his last seven matches.

Denis Shapovalov Preview

Denis Shapovalov is the 29th seed at the Madrid Open. He received a bye in the first round. Shapovalov will start his tournament in the second round against Kei Nishikori. This will be his seventh main draw in the Spanish capital. He reached the semifinal on his debut back in 2018. But in subsequent years, he’s failed to scale the third round stage and has lost in the second round three times.

Shapovalov is coming off a retirement defeat to German teenager Diego Dedura in Munich. He retired with an undisclosed injury while trailing by a set and a break. Shapovalov is currently on a three-match losing run (also lost to Taylor Fritz and Marcos Giron). He has a 12-8 record in 2025. He won the ATP 500 title in Dallas and was a semifinalist in Acapulco.

Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov Head-To-Head

Nishikori and Shapovalov have met three times on the ATP level. Nishikori leads 2-1 and defeated Shapovalov in his run to the Hong Kong final earlier this season. 

Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Look, there are more questions than answers when analysing this match. Both players came into the tournament under an injury cloud, but the silver lining for Nishikori was that he’s played a three-set match this week in the first round and was not severely hampered by the back injury he sustained in Houston, which forced him to retire from his match against Eubanks. Shapovalov hasn’t played since Munich, which could be significant, and for that, the Japanese star has earned the edge in this one.