Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction WTA Adelaide Tennis Picks 1/11/25

Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys meet in an all-American final at the 2025 WTA Adelaide International on Saturday, January 11, 2025. Here’s our Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys prediction. This preview will also include a Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys pick.

Jessica Pegula Preview

Jessica Pegula defeated Yulia Putintseva in straight sets in the second semifinal on Friday. The match lasted 90 minutes and took 21 games to decide.

Pegula recorded 23 winners and 37 unforced errors, while Putintseva recorded 15 winners and 28 unforced errors.

Pegula hit four aces and four double faults and landed 68% of first serves (50/74).

The American won 72% of first-serve points (36/50) and 58% of second-serve points (14/24) and saved one of two break points. Pegula trailed 2-4 in the first-set tie-break but won five points in a row to snatch it from Putintseva’s fingertips.

Only one break was the difference in the second set and it went Pegula’s way, with the top seed serving to 15 in the last hold of the match.

Pegula won 33% of return points (20/60) and converted two of six break points. She is yet to drop a set in her run to the final of the WTA Adelaide International.

Madison Keys Preview

Madison Keys was the first to make it to Saturday’s final at the WTA Adelaide International after fighting back from a set down to earn a retirement victory over Liudmila Samsonova.

The two big hitters traded two titanic sets, each lasting 12 games. Samsonova was the first to set the pace, getting an early break and serving for the first stanza at 5-4. But despite holding four set points, she could not close it out, allowing Keys to break her serve. But the Russian broke for the set in the 12th, converting on her eighth set point.

Keys did well to respond in the second set, which stayed on serve until the 11th game when the American got her second break of the match. She held in her next game to force a third set.

Samsonova had been playing with apparent blisters throughout the match and some strapping on her feet and fingers, but it was an abdominal injury that caused her retirement after dropping her serve twice at the beginning of the third set.

Keys has beaten three Top 30 players to make the final and will be seeking a second career title in these parts.

Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

• Pegula and Keys have met twice on the WTA Tour.

• The head-to-head is tied at 1-1 with both meetings taking place on hard courts.

• Pegula won in San Diego (2022), while Keys beat her compatriot in the last 16 at the 2023 US Open.

Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction

Pegula and Keys are two close friends and with a lot of tennis achievements in common. They are both US Open finalists and hold multiple WTA titles to their name (Pegula with six and Keys with eight). One thing that Pegula misses from her CV is a title from the Australian swing. Keys has won in Adelaide in the past and has looked every inch as good to add to her collection this week with three wins against Top 30 players including a straight-sets thrashing of World No. 9 Daria Kasatkina.

But I’m just leaning towards Pegula here. She has not lost a set and arrived in Adelaide with a full battery in her first tournament of the season. She’ll ask the right questions with her reliable return that will deprive Keys of her usual offensive rhythm. It will be tight with both players potentially taking a set off each other.