Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Prediction 5/16/25 Italian Open Tennis Picks

Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul meet in the semifinals of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Friday, May 16, 2025. Here’s our Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul prediction. This preview will also include a Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul pick.

Jannik Sinner Preview

Jannik Sinner put in a masterclass to demolish Madrid champion Casper Ruud in Thursday’s quarterfinal. Sinner served his way to a 6-0, 6-1 victory in 64 minutes. He won 16 of the first 18 points in the match to underline his dominance. It is his most comprehensive win of the season and is now 11-0 in 2025. Sinner is also an impressive 25-0 since his last defeat in the middle of last season.

Sinner began the tournament with a 6-3, 6-4 win against Mariano Navone. It was his first match since the Australian Open final following the expiry of his three-month doping ban. In the third round, Sinner defeated Jesper de Jong 6-4, 6-2. In the last 16, he overcame Francisco Cerundolo 7-6, 6-3, avenging his loss to the Argentinian from two years ago in the same tournament. Sinner’s unbeaten start to the year will give plenty of hope that he could become the first Italian man to win this event in 49 years.

Tommy Paul Preview

Tommy Paul made history with his semifinal run this week. He entered the tournament as the 11th seed and comfortably saw off Roberto Bautista Agut in his opening match 6-4, 6-1. In the third round, Paul toppled Tomas Machac 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 to make the second week, where he defeated Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-3. In the quarterfinal, he spent almost two hours beating Hubert Hurkacz 7-6, 6-3. Paul broke a 30-year American record, becoming the first man from his country to reach back-to-back semifinals in Rome since Pete Sampras (1993-1994).

Paul improves to 8-2 on clay this season. His other semifinal run in 2025 was in Houston, where he lost to eventual champion Jenson Brooksby, while in Madrid, he was beaten by Jack Draper in the round of 16.

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head

Sinner and Paul have met four times. The Italian leads the head-to-head 3-1 and won their only previous career meeting on clay in three sets at the 2022 Madrid Open.d

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Look, Paul is a big-match player these days and possesses the tools to succeed on this surface. I think he’s massively underrated. He’s got one of the best forehands in the business and is a great mover. He doesn’t have limited options at his disposal on this surface. But the problem for Paul is that the top seed has quickly found his rhythm after his recent return, and he’s the home crowd favorite. Paul will need more than a minor miracle to upset Sinner.