Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Prediction 4/4/25 Houston Tennis Picks

Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen clash in the quarterfinal of the 2025 ATP Houston Open on Friday, April 4, 2025. Here’s our Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen prediction. This preview will also include a Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen pick.

Frances Tiafoe Preview

Frances Tiafoe completed the eight-man lineup in the quarterfinals of the ATP Houston Open. It’s the first time since 1991 that all quarterfinalists in this ATP 250 event are Americans. Tiafoe saw off Adam Walton in straight sets. The match took 21 games to decide. Tiafoe prevailed 7-5, 6-3 in 90 minutes. In the victory, Tiafoe hammered 34 winners and 21 unforced errors, including four aces and two double faults.

Tiafoe landed 49% of first serves in play and won 85% of first serve points (22/26). The second seed won 63% of second serve points (17/27) and saved one of two breakpoints. Tiafoe compiled 45% of return points (33/73) and broke Walton four times in the match. He improves to 7-6 for the season. Tiafoe hasn’t reached a single quarterfinal on the ATP Tour this season and is yet to win back-to-back matches. The American does have a good record in Houston, though, reaching the last two finals (won in 2023 and was runner-up last year).

Alex Michelsen Preview

Alex Michelsen overcame an inspired effort from Adrian Mannarino to reach the last eight in Houston. The 20-year-old came through in three sets. The match took 31 games to decide. Michelsen won 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 in two and a half hours. In the victory, Michelsen hit 21 winners and 45 unforced errors, including three aces and three double faults.

Michelsen landed 65% of first serves in play and won 61% of first serve points (38/62). The fifth seed won 58% of second serve points (19/33) and saved five of nine breakpoints. Michelsen tallied 46% of return points (46/99) and broke Mannarino seven times. This was Michelsen’s 13th win from 21 matches this season. He had accounted for an opening win over Learner Tien earlier this week. Michelsen also improves on his Houston record. He lost in the first round last year. He has one semifinal to his name this season, can he reach his second?

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Head-To-Head

• Tiafoe and Michelsen have met once on the ATP Tour.

• Tiafoe won that meeting at the 2024 Dallas Open in straight sets.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Prediction

Two contrasting performances from Michelsen this week have completely changed my reasoning for this match, and I’m going to give Tiafoe the edge. But if anything, Michelsen will probably be delighted he polished up his game in what looked like a harmless second-round match against Mannarino that turned out to be a slugfest. He won’t get away with a lower first-serve percentage or offering so many breakpoints to a player of Tiafoe’s caliber, who is the better athlete here. I’m looking at a Tiafoe win with three sets being symbolic of his struggles this season.