Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction 9/5/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz will lock horns with Novak Djokovic in the first men’s semifinal of the 2025 US Open. The match is scheduled for Friday, September 5. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Preview

Carlos Alcaraz reached his third career semifinal at the US Open thanks to a straight sets win over Czech Jiri Lehecka. The match took 28 games to decide. Alcaraz spent the best part of two hours completing a dominant win. 

The Spaniard had the perfect start to the match when he broke Lehecka in the opening game and held on to that advantage for the remainder of the set to win it 6-4. Alcaraz broke Lehecka twice in the second set and once in the third set. Alcaraz finished the match with 28 winners and 17 unforced errors. He hit five aces and two double faults. Alcaraz landed 63% of first serves in play and won 84% of first serve points (38/45). Alcaraz did not face a single break point in the match.

Novak Djokovic defeated last year’s finalist Taylor Fritz for the 11th time to reach an incredible 53rd Grand Slam semifinal. Djokovic won in four sets, and while the scoreline was close, he did not look in any danger during the match.

Djokovic took the first two sets and only lost his serve once. And although Fritz reduced the deficit by winning the third set, and building some momentum when he saved two match points on serve, Djokovic broke decisively in the 10th game of the fourth set. Djokovic hit 33 winners to 40 unforced errors in the match. That included 10 aces and eight double faults. Djokovic landed 63% of first serves in play and won 72% of first serve points (63/88). He saved 11 of 13 break points.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Head-To-Head

Alcaraz and Djokovic have faced each other eight times in competitive matches. Djokovic holds a 5-3 lead over the Spaniard and won their most recent match in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Australian Open in four sets. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction

Djokovic has won four of his last five matches against Alcaraz after the Spaniard won two of their first three meetings in their rivalry. It’s clear that Alcaraz and Sinner currently occupy the top tier of men’s tennis, and now, as the live race suggests, Djokovic is just below them. They are the trio well ahead of the rest of the pack.

Alcaraz has been the most dominant player in 2025 with more points and titles than anyone else on the ATP tour. Admittedly, he’s also 16 years younger than his Serbian opponent, and is built for the long haul in a best-of-five. I’m not writing off Djokovic; he has had the upper hand in this matchup and has made Alcaraz force the issue at times by overplaying points. But if Djokovic pushes Alcaraz to the edge, Alcaraz has already shown this swing, he can push back.