Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev meet in the fourth round of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships. The match is scheduled for Sunday, July 6. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Preview
Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a four-set win over Jan Lennard Struff of Germany. Alcaraz started the match on the front foot, winning the first set 6-1 in just 27 minutes, hitting eight winners and nine unforced errors. But despite taking a 2-1 lead with an early break in the second set, he lost his serve twice and allowed Struff to level the match. Alcaraz had to raise his level in the third set and broke Struff after three chances in the second game of the set and that was the only advantage he had, which he didn’t relinquish. The fourth set was tight, but it was Alcaraz who broke decisively in the ninth game before sealing victory with a love hold.

Alcaraz hit 38 winners and 28 unforced errors, including 10 aces and four unforced errors. Alcaraz landed 58% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (46/63). He won 62% of second serve points (28/45) and saved three of five break points. Alcaraz improves to 8-0 on grass this season and is 28-1 on the surface since 2023. His only defeat in that time was to Jack Draper at Queen’s last year.

Andrey Rublev is the 14th seed at Wimbledon and has reached the fourth round for the third time. Rublev defeated France’s Adrian Mannarino in straight sets in the last round. Rublev won a tight opening set 7-5, saving three crucial break points to hold for 5-4. After saving three more break points at the start of the second set, the Russian broke Mannarino to take a 3-1 lead. Rublev then broke again at the tail end of the set to seal it 6-2. Rublev dropped his serve for the first time in the match in the third game of the third set, just after breaking Mannarino. The set stayed on serve until the eighth game when Rublev pounced on his chance again to lead 5-3. he served for the match in the subsequent game.

Rublev hit 33 winners and 28 unforced errors in the match. He accounted for 14 aces and four double faults. Rublev landed 57% of first serves in play and won 80% of first serve points (45/56). He won 53% of second serve points (23/43) and saved nine of 10 break points. Rublev’s best result at Wimbledon was reaching the quarterfinals back in 2023. If he is to repeat that result, he must pull off the upset of the tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Head-To-Head
Alcaraz and Rublev have met three times at all levels. Alcaraz leads 2-1 and last beat Rublev at the 2024 ATP Finals. This will be their first meeting on grass.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Alcaraz’s level has been up and down throughout the tournament, and at this stage, he cannot afford to consistently throw in some dud games and go unpunished. The tournament enters the second week, and you almost invariably get to meet top 20 or top 10 players. I don’t expect this to be a straight sets cruise, so Rublev may well cover the set spread in this one.

Nur Said's Pick: Carlos Alcaraz in four sets