ATP Finals Prediction: Alcaraz vs Sinner 11/16/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz will face Jannik Sinner in the final of the 2025 ATP Finals in Turin on Sunday, November 16. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Preview

For the first time in his career, Carlos Alcaraz reached the championship match at the ATP Finals. Alcaraz compiled a perfect 3-0 group stage record, with wins over Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti, dropping just one a set. He topped the group and faced Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals.

The Spaniard cruised past the Canadian 6-2, 6-4 in an hour and 24 minutes. He hit 5 aces to 1 double fault. Alcaraz landed 75% of first serves in play and won 82% of first serve points (31/38). Alcaraz won 54% of second serve points (7/13) and saved one break point in the match.

Alcaraz already leads the tour for most titles won this year with eight. He is looking to become the first Spaniard to win this tournament since Alex Corretja in 1998. Alcaraz has lifted just two of his 25 career titles on indoor hard courts.

Jannik Sinner breezed past Alex De Minaur for the 13th time to reach the title match at the ATP Finals. The defending champion underlined his dominance over the Aussie and the field this week, as he continues to hold serve in every single match so far.

Like Alcaraz, Sinner is also undefeated this week, completing wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton in the group stage. In the semis, he lost seven games in a straight sets victory against De Minaur, who is his favorite opponent.

Sinner won this tournament without losing a set last year, but he is looking to achieve something even more historic this time. He has not dropped a single service game this week and if he holds in Sunday’s final and wins the title, he’ll become the first man to do so at the year-end championships.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Head-To-Head

Alcaraz leads Sinner 10-5 in official Tour-level matches. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction

The stakes could only be higher if the World No. 1 ranking was on the line. Alcaraz already sealed that with a perfect group stage record. That said, this is possibly the best match to end the season.

The pressure will be on Sinner, who is the defending champion and playing in front of his home crowd. Another defeat will strengthen Alcaraz’s grip on this rivalry. But Sinner has previously demonstrated his resilience in the face of expectations and pressure and duly delivered at Wimbledon by beating Alcaraz and he also beat the Spaniard just after the US Open in a lucrative exhibition match in Riyadh. Sinner’s indoor record is also exceptional, having not lost in 30 matches. I’m leaning Sinner here, but whether he sets the record of winning the ATP Finals without dropping serve might be out of reach.

Nur Said's Pick: Jannik Sinner in three sets