Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction 4/13/25 Monte Carlo Final Tennis Picks

Alcaraz landed 66% of first serves in play and won 65% of first serve points (31/48). The four-time Grand Slam champion won 64% of second serve points (16/25) and saved five of seven breakpoints. Alcaraz compiled 46% of return points (50/109) and broke Davidovich Fokina three times in the match. He improves to 19-4 for the season and will contest his second final of 2025 (won in Rotterdam). Alcaraz has lifted eight clay-court titles in his career.

Lorenzo Musetti Preview

Lorenzo Musetti saw off Alex de Minaur in three sets in a pulsating second semifinal to reach Sunday's title match in Monte Carlo. The match took 27 games to decide, easily covering the games spread as per our prediction. In the victory, Musetti triumphed 1-6, 6-4, 7-6 in over two and a half hours. He hit 20 winners and 43 unforced errors, including two aces and one double fault.

Musetti landed 67% of first serves in play and won 60% of first serve points (37/62). The Italian won 37% of second serve points (11/30) and saved five of 12 breakpoints. Musetti won 43% of return points (40/94) and broke de Minaur five times in the match. Musetti has won four of his five matches this week in three sets.

Musetti is the second Italian man in the Open Era to reach the Monte Carlo final, following the footsteps of Fabio Fognini, who sensationally won the tournament back in 2019. The 23-year-old won his only previous clay-court title in 2022, remarkably beating a fast-rising Alcaraz in the Hamburg final.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz and Musetti have met four times on the ATP level.

• Alcaraz leads Musetti 3-1 in the head-to-head but lost their only clay-court final in Hamburg three years ago.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

I'm taking Alcaraz here. This final should be a stylistic treat for the neutrals. We'll get an early midday kick-off, with the match scheduled to commence at 12 p.m. local time because of forecasted rain on Sunday. The conditions are unlikely to cause so much hindrance for either of these two players who are uniquely fluent on the surface and can seamlessly adjust. Alcaraz is making up for his errors with tactical sharpness and is not a player who is easily flustered with touch and variety. Add that to his ability to take the initiative in a rally, and we could be looking at an emphatic win.