Indian Wells Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
Tuesday, March 11, 2025
Betting Odds: Daniil Medvedev -133 / Tommy Paul +110 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: Tennis TV
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul meet in the fourth round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. Here's our Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul prediction. This article will also include a Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul pick.
Daniil Medvedev Preview
Daniil Medvedev only played for two games when his opponent Alex Michelsen retired due to illness. The match lasted a mere 10 minutes with Medvedev hitting three winners, including one ace. Medvedev took a MTO in the match to nurse a nosebleed, but it wasn't necessary for him to continue because Michelsen retired shortly after.
Before the third round, Medvedev had beaten China's Bu Yunchaokete in straight sets for a milestone 200th hard-court win in the last five years.
This was Medvedev's 10th win from 15 matches in 2025. He has reached the last two finals in Indian Wells (losing to Carlos Alcaraz each time). So, he will be chasing his third successive quarterfinal at the event.
Medvedev has won seven of his 10 matches on Tour.
Tommy Paul Preview
Tommy Paul had to earn his spot in the fourth round with a solid straight sets win against former champion Cameron Norrie. The match took 21 games to decide and lasted an hour and 34 minutes. In the victory, Paul hammered 14 winners and 15 unforced errors, including six aces and three double faults.
Paul landed 52% of first serves in play and won 70% of first serve points (21/30). The 10th seed won 50% of second serve points (14/28) and was broken three times in the match (0-3 on BPs saved). Paul had success on the return, winning 51% of points (36/70) and breaking Norrie's serve six times.
This was his 12th win from 15 matches in 2025. He has won six of his last seven matches on Tour. He will face Medvedev in a rematch of last year's semifinal.
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head
• Medvedev and Paul have met four times on Tour.
• Medvedev leads the series 3-1. He won their two hard-court meetings. That includes last year's semifinal when he fought back from a set down to beat the American in three.
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction
I'm willing to give Medvedev the benefit of the doubt here and pick him to win this, but only just. He's not a player who inspires so much confidence right now with five losses in less than three months. The overriding factor behind this pick is that Medvedev can grind his way out of trouble on slower hard courts, something he did with distinction when he played Paul 12 months ago. The over 2.5 sets is also a good avenue to go with for value, with Paul's skillset getting him at least one set.
Nur’s Pick Daniil Medvedev in three sets
AUTHOR: Nur Said
