Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction 3/10/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

He landed 50% of first serves in play and won 92% of first serve points (22/24). Alcaraz won 63% of second serve points (17/27) and saved one break point in the match. The second seed won 35% of return points (17/49) and broke Halys three times in the match.

Alcaraz extends his win streak at the BNP Paribas Open to 13 matches and remains in the hunt for a three-peat. This was his 12th win from 14 matches. He has not lost before the quarterfinals at any tournament this season.

Denis Shapovalov Preview

Denis Shapovalov also got his Indian Wells campaign with a straight sets win. The Canadian beat Australian qualifier Adam Walton 6-3, 6-2 in an hour and 17 minutes. In the victory, Shapovalov hit eight winners and 15 unforced errors. That tally included two aces and three double faults.

Shapovalov landed 61% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (29/42). He won 41% of second serve points (11/27) and saved eight of 10 break points in the match. Shapovalov won 55% of return points (26/47) and broke Walton five times.

Shapovalov improves to 11-4 for the season. It's the first time he's reached the third round in Indian Wells since 2022. The World No. 28 has only reached the last 16 of this Masters event once in his career.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz and Shapovalov have met once on Tour.

• Alcaraz won their solitary meeting at the 2023 French Open in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Alcaraz is forging one of those trademark single tournament dominance enjoyed by the Big Three. Victory here will be his 14th in a row in Indian Wells. No player has laid a punch on the Spaniard in the last two seasons in this event and he is the clear-cut favorite for the title next week.

But this will be a true test of his title credentials. Shapovalov has won nine of his last 10 matches. He's back in the Top 30 after lifting his first ATP 500 in Dallas and has all the momentum in the world to keep this close. It is still Alcaraz who will come out on top here, but I expect Shapovalov to keep the losing deficit within the handicap range of +4.5.