Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction 3/9/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Tsitsipas landed 69% of first serves in play and won 76% of first serve points (26/34). The eighth seed won 80% of second serve points (12/15) and saved both break points he faced on serve. Tsitsipas compiled 42% of return points won (30/71) and broke Seyboth Wild three times in the match.

Tsitsipas extends his win streak to six matches after winning the Dubai title last month. He will pursue a spot in the second week of Indian Wells for the second year in a row.

Matteo Berrettini Preview

Matteo Berrettini is coming off a straight-sets win over Christopher O'Connell of Australia. The match took 21 games to decide. The 28th seed prevailed 6-2, 7-6 in 96 minutes. In the victory, Berrettini recorded 22 winners and 21 unforced errors including seven aces and one double fault.

Berrettini landed 67% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (29/42). He won 74% of second serve points (17/23) and saved the one break point he faced in the match. The Italian tallied 39% of return points won (24/61) and converted two of three break points.

This was his first victory in Indian Wells in two years. He has reached the second week of this event only once in his career.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Berrettini Head-To-Head

• Tsitsipas and Berrettini have met five times on the ATP Tour.

• Tsitsipas leads Berrettini 4-1 in their head-to-head.

• The Greek won their last meeting last month at the Dubai Tennis Championships in three sets.

• All five meetings have featured at least 21 games.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

I think this one should easily cover the overs in the games spread. While the head-to-head has been lopsided, there has been at least one tie-break set in each of their five matches. That's not a guarantee we'll get one here, but it should be tight, with both men likely splitting sets.

Tsitsipas is the in-form player and probably just edges this outright. He's changed his racket sponsor and he's remarkably reinvigorated his game just when detractors were quick to write him off. He's reclaimed his top 10 spot after lifting his first ATP 500 title in Dubai and has forgotten what losing feels like.