Paula Badosa vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/17/25

Paula Badosa and Marta Kostyuk meet in the third round of the 2025 Australian Open on Friday, January 17, 2025. Here’s our Paula Badosa vs Marta Kostyuk prediction. This preview also includes a Paula Badosa vs Marta Kostyuk pick.

Paula Badosa Preview

Paula Badosa defeated Australian wild card Talia Gibson in straight sets to reach the third round The match took 13 games to decide and lasted only 48 minutes. The Spaniard only dropped one game.

Badosa recorded 14 winners and 10 unforced errors in the match. That included three aces and two double faults. She landed 55% of first serves and won 86% of first-serve points (19/22).

Badosa won 67% of second-serve points (12/18). She held in all seven of her service games in the match and never faced a single break point.

Badosa won 63% of return points (20/32) and 100% of net points (5/5). She was clinical on her break points (5/5). This was Badosa’s third win of the season (defeated Peyton Stearns in Adelaide).

Marta Kostyuk Preview

Marta Kostyuk is through to the third round of the Australian Open yet again. Kostyuk delivered her best display yet at this tournament by beating Jule Niemeier in straight sets.

The match took 15 games to decide and lasted 66 minutes. Kostyuk prevailed 6-3, 6-0. In the victory, Kostyuk recorded 14 winners and 17 unforced errors. She hit three aces and four double faults.

Kostyuk landed 67% of first serves and won 78% of first-serve points (25/32). She won 44% of second-serve points (7/16).

Kostyuk held in 7 of 8 service games in the match and saved three of four break points on her serve. She won 60% of return points (25/42) and 75% of net points (9/12), converting five of six break points.

The World No. 18 picked up her second win of the season after a stuttering start in Brisbane and Adelaide.

Paula Badosa vs Marta Kostyuk Head-To-Head

• Badosa and Kostyuk have played four times.

• Badosa leads 3-1 winning two of those meetings at the Australian Open.

• Kostyuk’s solitary win was via retirement at the 2023 Wimbledon Championships

Paula Badosa vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction

This hasn’t been a good matchup for Kostyuk in the past but I’m willing to go against the grain and back the upset. Kostyuk is a top 20 player these days with a refined game, unlike the one-dimensional player who lost three times to Badosa in the past.

She can throw Badosa off her rhythm with her willingness to attack and mix things up from the baseline. This added variety is what she missed before and that’s why she’s a dangerous floater in the draw. Badosa’s serve is a big weapon, but can malfunction and if Kostyuk gets to the ball early in her return she can pose some serious questions and put pressure on her. These are two players who have a tendency to let their levels drop in matches and I like the price of the underdog Kostyuk who is fast becoming hard to beat in Grand Slams. 

Nur Said's Pick: Marta Kostyuk in three sets