Emma Navarro vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction WTA Adelaide Tennis Picks 1/8/25

World No. 8 Emma Navarro is chasing her first win of this brand new WTA season. The high-flying American lost in the opening round at the Brisbane International this past week to home player Kimberly Birrell.

Navarro must now get used to starting most of her matches as the favorite considering her ranking jump and confidence levels in the past year after establishing herself among the tour's elite players.

Navarro was a semifinalist at last year's US Open and won her maiden WTA title on Australian soil while competing at the WTA 250 in Hobart. She's decided for a change of scenery this week, opting not to head to Tasmania to defend her title and will fight for 500 points at the WTA Adelaide International. 

Navarro hasn't won a match on tour since Hong Kong in October 2024, ironically, beating Birrell.

Ekaterina Alexandrova Preview

Ekaterina Alexandrova won her opening match at the 2025 Adelaide International. Alexandrova defeated Canada’s Leylah Fernandez in three sets. The match took 27 games to decide.

Alexandrova was a +190 underdog heading into that match on Monday. The big-serving Russian hit seven aces and three double faults.

She landed 63% of her first serves and won 65% of first-serve points (37/57). Alexandrova won 42% of her second serve points (14/33) and saved 14 of 19 break points. That number proved crucial.

Alexandrova won 49% of her return points and converted 7 of 13 breakpoints on the Fernandez serve. Alexandrova is defending semifinal points at the WTA Adelaide International. She earned a shock win over Elena Rybakina at this time last year.

Alexandrova hasn't won back-to-back matches since early October when she made the last eight in Wuhan.

Emma Navarro vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Head-To-Head

• Navarro and Alexandrova have met once on tour.

• Alexandrova won that match in straight sets at the 2023 Wimbledon Championships.

Emma Navarro vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction

Surely Navarro can't play any worse than she did against Birrell, but she's up against a dangerous big hitter on a fast court. Alexandrova has the better serve in this matchup and probably better forehand acceleration. It's whether the Russian can limit her unforced errors in a baseline battle. That's where Navarro shines with her ability to extend rallies and go for the killer shot.

Putting Alexandrova's feet to work should be Navarro's go-to tactic here because she'll draw the errors out of her racket. But getting Alexandrova at plus money and her ability to overachieve in these types of matches make her a value pick.