Kei Nishikori vs Alexandre Muller Prediction ATP Hong Kong Tennis Picks 1/5/25

Kei Nishikori will play in his first ATP final since 2019 in Brisbane when he won the title by beating Daniil Medvedev.

Nishikori has suffered three injury-blighted seasons in that time, so this is a welcome relief for him after a very positive week both in terms of fitness and performance wise.

In the first round of the Hong Kong Open, Nishikori beat Denis Shapovalov in straight sets in match that took 17 games to decide.

In the second round, Nishikori accounted for one of the biggest shocks of the week by eliminating third seed Karen Khachanov from a set down.

It took another three setter for him to progress into the semis, this time, beating Cameron Norrie 6-3, 3-6, 6-2. 

In the semifinal, Nishikori received a slice of good fortune when China's Juncheng Shang was forced to retire halfway through the first set because of undisclosed illness.

Nishikori has won a title as recently as November 2024, but that was in the Challenger Tour in Helsinki.

Alexandre Muller Preview

Alexandre Muller battled from a set down to beat Jaume Munar to reach his second ATP final of his career. 

Muller's previous final appearance was on clay in Marrakech two seasons ago when he lost to Roberto Carballes Baena.

The Frenchman has required to win all his four matches in the main draw in Hong Kong in three sets. 

In the first round, he beat Marc-Andrea Huesler 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. In the second round, he came back from a set down again to knock out Miomir Kecmanovic 7-6 in the third.

His best win of the week was in the quarterfinal where he upset countryman Arthur Fils 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 before he beat Munar on Saturday.

Kei Nishikori vs Alexandre Muller Head-To-Head

• Nishikori and Muller have never met on the ATP Tour, this will be their first meeting.

Kei Nishikori vs Alexandre Muller Prediction

I'm siding with Nishikori in this one. He's been playing exceptionally well all week and maybe for the first time in what must feel like an eternity, his body is holding up under the most intense of situations. He has been pretty successful competing on Challenger level in the past 18 months, winning multiple titles, but this is big. It's his first ATP final in six years. His injury record has been atrocious since, but he's finally playing pain-free.

It would be the feel-good story of the opening week of the tournament. Obviously sports doesn't always have the storybook ending and Muller has more than proven his worth this week with gusty wins against Fils and Munar and can be even be nibbled at to cover the sets spread, but I like Nishikori to win outright and lift a rare ATP title.