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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction 3/2/25 NHL Picks
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Pittsburgh Penguins (24-29-9) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (37-20-2)
March 2, 2025 at 01:00 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Penguins +164 / Toronto Maple Leafs -198 — Over/Under: 6.5
In this article, we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Penguins prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, March 2nd at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs (37-20-2, 31-28 ATS) are currently playing in excellent form. The Maple Leafs won seven of the previous eight games, and are on a four-game winning streak after defeating the Hurricanes, Blackhawks, Bruins, and Rangers. Toronto is 2nd in the Atlantic Division Standings with 76 points, just a point behind the Florida Panthers and two ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Maple Leafs average 3.19 goals per game this year (11th), while they allow 2.83 GPG (10th). Mitch Marner leads the team with 74 points (18 G and 56 A). William Nylander contributes 59 points (34 G and 25 A), while John Tavares and Auston Matthews have 49 points apiece.
Joseph Woll (20-11-0) will take his place between the sticks for the Maple Leafs against the Penguins on Sunday. The 26-year-old is conceding 2.63 goals per contest this season with a .910 SV% and one shutout.
Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Penguins (24-29-9, 32-27-3 ATS) are going through a rough patch right now. They lost nine of the last 13 games but did manage to avoid the fifth consecutive loss after beating the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in overtime. The Penguins returned to losing ways with a 3-2 home loss to the Boston Bruins. After this game, Pittsburgh will go on a three-game road trip.
The Penguins score 2.85 goals per game on average (19th), while they concede 3.58 GPG (31st). This season, Sidney Crosby leads the team with 62 points (18 G and 44 A). Rickard Rakell has 50 points (26 G and 24 A), while Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust chips in with 43 points apiece.Â
Joel Blomqvist (4-9-0) is expected to start for the Penguins at the goal on Sunday against the Maple Leafs. The 23-year-old is allowing 3.63 goals per game this year with a .890 SV% and no shutouts.Â
Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win
- The underdogs have won four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games at PPG Paints Arena.
- The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
- The home team has covered the puck line in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.
- The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in four of their last five games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents when trailing after the second period.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win
- The Penguins have lost each of their last six day games.
- The Maple Leafs have won seven of their last eight games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six day games.
- The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games against the Penguins following a road win.
- The Maple Leafs have won the second period in each of their last five games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the Penguins’ last eight home games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Four of the Maple Leafs’ last five road games against Metropolitan Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Penguins’ last four day games at PPG Paints Arena.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 31st in the league in save percentage this season (.882).
- The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 30th in the league for Period 3 goals allowed per game this season (1.29).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only three teams to win 6+ games when trailing after Period 2 this season.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only four teams to win a game when trailing by 3 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins Prediction
The Maple Leafs and Penguins combined for 13 goals in two H2H duels this season. The Penguins are struggling defensively right now; they conceded 3+ goals in each of the last six games, and 5+ in four of them. On the other hand, the Maple Leafs scored 3+ in the previous four games, and I back the visitors to score at least four in this one. I am leaning toward the Leafs here, but I’ll opt for the Over instead of backing Toronto to win, which is a probable outcome as well.
